462
FXUS66 KOTX 151751
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1051 AM PDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
- MORNING LOWS NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL BRING LOWLAND RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOWY TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COLD WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT: A COLD CORE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL WOBBLE INTO THE
REGION DELIVERING WINDY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW. A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE
LEADING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS RECENTLY CROSSED OVER THE OLYMPICS
AND WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH INW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY END WITH DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR
MOVING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START OFF NEARLY 150% OF
NORMAL AND LOWER TO 50% OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
FALLING RAPIDLY WITH SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS, IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH ACCUMULATIONS NOTED ON STEVENS
AND SNOQUALMIE PASSES. CAMS INDICATE SNOW ALSO FALLING ON
SHERMAN AND LOOKOUT PASSES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THESE
CONCERNS FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES BRINGING A RENEWED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE
WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS
DRYING OUT, CLOUD BASIS WILL BE HIGH WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING TO FEW TENTHS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TODAY WILL BE WINDY WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-25 MPH
AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE
HIGHER RIDGETOPS AND IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WA
AND PARTIALLY FOR NORTH IDAHO. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
FREEZING OR COLDER. OUR LOW ELEVATION ZONES IN THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN AND WENATCHEE AREA HAVE REACHED THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON AND HAVE FREEZE WATCHES IN PLACE.
LATEST FORECAST NUMBERS RANGE FROM 30 TO 34F WITH THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY COMING FROM A LIGHT STEADY WIND OF 5-11 MPH
OVERNIGHT. WILL THIS BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK? THINKING IT WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION WITH SOME AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND DIPPING NEAR
29-30F AND OTHERS REMAINING CLOSER TO 34F. CONSEQUENTLY, FREEZE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE COAST ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDES INLAND ON FRIDAY. OVERALL,
WEATHER IMPACTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS PINWHEELING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH IDAHO ON THURSDAY WITH A 30% CHANCE
FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH AT LOOKOUT PASS. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WA WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY BUT WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS
AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE
DEPARTING LOW. WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
WILL BE COMMON AROUND WENATCHEE, ENTIAT, WATERVILLE, EPHRATA,
MOSES LAKE, PULLMAN, AND POMEROY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S, ROUGHLY 5-8 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT THE GULF OF AK AND INTO THE
WESTERN US. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MILD AND
DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STARTS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN US. IT IS CLOSE TO A 50/50
SPLIT IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE LOW TO DIVE WELL SOUTH OF THE INW
LEAVING IT MILD AND DRY WHILE THE OTHER 50 HAVE THE LOW IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. NBM IS
CARRYING 20-25% PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THAT SUPPORT THE SHOWERY REGIME. THIS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY
RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS IF ANY AT ALL. /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: REGION IS THE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING FRONT.
TRAILING SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
KGEG- KSFF- KCOE- KPUW- KLWS. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO KEAT-KMWH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FALLING AS
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT LITTLE TO NO PROBABILITIES FOR CONDITIONS
TO LOWER BELOW VFR. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30KTS. OVERNIGHT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE POST FRONTAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND DRY AIR
INTRUSION.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 29 51 30 54 32 / 90 20 30 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 47 29 47 29 52 30 / 100 30 50 10 0 0
PULLMAN 44 28 45 29 51 32 / 100 30 40 10 0 0
LEWISTON 51 33 50 34 56 33 / 100 30 30 0 0 0
COLVILLE 52 27 53 26 57 28 / 70 50 30 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 46 29 45 28 50 29 / 100 60 70 20 20 0
KELLOGG 43 27 41 28 47 29 / 100 50 80 30 30 0
MOSES LAKE 55 28 58 31 61 34 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 51 32 55 35 59 40 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR MOSES LAKE
AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WENATCHEE AREA.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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