115
FXUS66 KOTX 160753
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1253 AM PDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN IDAHO AND FAR EASTERN REACHES OF
WASHINGTON THURSDAY.
- MORNING LOWS NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN IDAHO AND
FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT: THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE WA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY
WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS OF WARMING, CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME EASTERN THIRD OF WA. MIDLEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM OVER
THESE AREAS COINCIDING WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BC WITH
SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE SHOWER FIELDS STARTING IN
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER LOOKOUT PASS,
MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON LIKELY
HAVING A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON ROADS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND MODEST
CLEARING. BE PREPARED FOR CARE FOR SENSITIVE PLANTS ONCE AGAIN
REGION-WIDE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DELIVERING LIGHT WINDS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HAS A SUPPORT FROM NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE
MODELS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMES INTO PLAY BY LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL MOST LIKELY TAKE A TRACK ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE WA COAST (80-85% CHANCE). DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND NW WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD. IF THE 20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COME TO FRUITION WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND TRACK, THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS PRESENT BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AT
LEAST IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON WARMING
TREND, ROUGHLY 5-7 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING AND A SLOW TRANSITION FROM MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
REMAINING LOWLANDS.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: TRENDS WILL BE TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING PRECIPITAITON CHANCES WITH 60-65% OR MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SWINGING THE OFFSHORE LOW INLAND. THE MAIN VARIANCE IN
THE MODELS IS EXACTLY WHEN DOES THIS OCCUR (TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY). THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN BUT A
MORE TYPICAL APRIL INSTABILITY SHOWER THREAT WITH WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE 60-70S BACK INTO THE 50-60S, VERY
CLOSE TO LATE APRIL AVERAGES. /SB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO NORTH IDAHO AND AT TIMES, FAR EASTERN WA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK
NORTH TO SOUTH 14-21Z FALLING AS SNOW FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE, MIX
FOR KPUW, AND RAIN FOR KLWS DUE TO THE LATER TIMING. PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AROUND KCOE AND KPUW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES, DECREASING WINDS, AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLY MORNING MVFR STRATUS. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS BUT LOW IF
THIS WILL DRIVE VIS DOWN BELOW 5SM. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT THOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF NE WA AND N ID THURSDAY NIGHT. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 29 54 32 62 38 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 46 29 52 30 60 36 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 45 29 51 32 60 39 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 50 33 56 33 65 41 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 54 26 57 28 62 33 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 44 28 49 29 57 35 / 80 10 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 41 28 47 28 57 36 / 90 20 20 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 59 30 60 34 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 55 35 59 39 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 57 32 61 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WENATCHEE AREA.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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