211
FXUS66 KOTX 190537
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1037 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
- INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPSIS
DRY, WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE RAINS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THROUGH
MONDAY LOOK FOR TRANSIENT, VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY CLOUDS START
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND THE FIRST SHOWER CHANCES REACH
INTO THE CASCADE CREST. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
MID-40S. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
SOME LOW 80S IN THE DEEPER BASIN, WHILE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY: THE AREA HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE OF MOVING INTO PERIOD OF WET WEATHER MIDWEEK, BEFORE
TRENDING DRIER. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEPICTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AREA,
BEFORE A RIDGE STARTS TO FLOP BACK IN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING TO EMERGE OVER THE CASCADES AND SOUTHEAST CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, EXPANDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN POPS PEAK
AROUND 60-90% OVER THE EAST THIRD OF WA AND ID AND 30-50% OVER
CENTRAL WA, UP TO NEAR 60-70% AT THE CASCADE CREST. THIS WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
7.5-8.5KFT TUESDAY DROPPING TO AROUND 4.5-5KFT BY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BRINGING SOME MODEST DIFFLUENT FLOW, THE MILDER AIR
AHEAD OF IT AND A FRONT MOVING IN, A RISK FOR T-STORMS IS
REASONABLE. THIS INCLUDES A CHANCE FOR SOME NOCTURNAL T-STORMS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW WIDESPREAD THESE
ARE WILL BE LINKED TO HOW MUCH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY CAN
SYNC UP. IF THE LIFT DOES NOT QUITE GET HERE BEFORE THE BEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE SUNSET, THEN THE RISK WOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER. EITHER WAY THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH. THE MAIN
RISK WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
THE DEFORMATION AXIS THAT LIFTS IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75" TO 1.0"
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AROUND SOUTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE, LOCALLY BETWEEN
1.0" TO 1.50" NEAR THE HIGHER PALOUSE INTO THE PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WA COULD SEEN BETWEEN
0.25" TO 0.75"; THE CASCADES THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY COULD
SEE BETWEEN 0.05" TO 0.25", HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS AND THEN THE RAIN, THIS COMES
WITH SOME RISES IN AREA RIVERS, THOUGH MOST MAINSTEM RIVER
REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. STEHEKIN IS AN EXCEPTION WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SEE RISES EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. SO THAT WILL
BE MONITORED. ADDITIONALLY THE NWRFC ALSO SHOWS THAT KOOTENAI
RIVER AT BONNERS FERRY MAY PUSH ABOVE ACTION STAGE AFTER
MIDWEEK. STREAMS AND CREEKS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND FIELDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING AS WELL, WITH AREAS SUCH AS
SOUTHEAST WA INCLUDING THE PALOUSE PRONE TO POTENTIAL ISSUES,
AS IT HAS HAD THIS SPRING. THE BEST RISK WILL BE AROUND
WEDNESDAY, RECEDING INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WANES.
THE RISK REMAINS MODEST ON THURSDAY, WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PRECISE TRACK OF THAT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE, DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE PARENT TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS AROUND THE ID PANHANDLE AND
SECONDARILY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA. BY THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING, FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SOME SHOWER CHANCES LINGER AROUND MOUNTAIN
ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRIER.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS DROP ABOUT 15 DEGREES HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY (COMPARED TO TUESDAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S. LOWS WILL BE THE 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN
UPPER 30S AND 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES LOOK FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE, HIGHEST NEAR THE CASCADES TO UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR
THE CASCADES AND BLUES, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL
MOSTLY BE FEW OR SCATTERED THROUGH 18-20Z, WHEN A MORE BROKEN
DECK WILL SETTLE IN AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. PUW WILL
SEE 10-12KT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT THOSE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AROUND 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 38 69 44 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 37 69 44 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 39 68 46 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 41 73 47 78 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 35 72 41 78 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 36 67 43 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 38 69 46 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 39 77 45 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 43 72 51 77 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 41 73 47 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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