783
FXUS66 KOTX 192112
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
212 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPSIS
DRY, WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE RAINS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING: A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LEAD
TO FILTERED SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
START TO MOVE OVER THE CASCADE CREST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST TRACKS INLAND. BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST WA, AND ID PANHANDLE. POPS BECOME
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY WET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
FOR THESE AREAS WITH POPS RANGING FROM 70-90 PERCENT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND
8000 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA AND THE
CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE. THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE HAS 0.7 TO 0.9
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD FOR
LOCATIONS INCLUDING PULLMAN, LEWISTON, KELLOGG, OROFINO, AND
SAINT MARIES. AMOUNTS GENERALLY DECREASE TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH
0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR RITZVILLE,
DAVENPORT, SPOKANE, AND BONNERS FERRY. FOR LOCATIONS LIKE OMAK,
TWISP, WENATCHEE, AND COULEE CITY, LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN
IS FORECAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
DEPICTING A LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS, INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS EVENT WILL PLAY OUT AND
WHERE EXACTLY THAT DEFORMATION BAND WILL SET UP. THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE (LOW END) AND NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE (HIGH END) QPF FORECASTS IS OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. EVEN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE
SPREAD IS OVER HALF AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIP CHANCES, THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL RESULT
IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 TO 30
PERCENT) WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA AND THE CENTRAL ID
PANHANDLE WITH LOWER CHANCES (15 TO 20 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE, AND EASTERN
THIRD OF WA. THE MAIN RISKS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO UPPER 60S (COOLEST OVER THE ID PANHANDLE, WARMEST
OVER THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND OKANOGAN VALLEY). WITH THE
COOLING TEMPERATURES, EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
MPH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSTANT IN THE
50S AND 60S, BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL WANES ACROSS THE REGION.
/FEWKES
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 10
KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 75 48 75 46 54 / 0 0 0 10 50 80
COEUR D'ALENE 44 75 48 75 46 54 / 0 0 0 10 60 90
PULLMAN 45 74 48 70 43 49 / 0 0 0 10 70 90
LEWISTON 47 78 51 75 49 54 / 0 0 0 10 70 90
COLVILLE 41 78 45 80 47 66 / 0 0 0 10 40 60
SANDPOINT 45 70 47 72 44 54 / 0 0 0 10 50 90
KELLOGG 46 74 50 76 46 51 / 0 0 0 10 60 90
MOSES LAKE 45 81 49 77 49 68 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
WENATCHEE 50 78 53 76 53 66 / 0 0 0 10 30 30
OMAK 47 74 50 74 50 69 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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