446
FXUS66 KOTX 051210
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
510 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD
WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS
IN. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE SMALL
CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES COOLER
COURTESY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THAT DEVELOPED WITH SLOWLY
RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEYS OF CENTRAL WA AND
70S FOR EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LAY INTO THE REGION IN THE
MORNING THEN FLATTEN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTH
IDAHO AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WA WITH THIS TROUGH, OTHERWISE THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP ANOTHER
3-5 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DIP LOWER NEAR 20% AND LOCALLY LOWER IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE CASCADE GAPS AND EAST SLOPES DRIVEN BY A SHARPER PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE CREST. WIND
GUSTS WILL BELOW 30 MPH BEFORE 5PM THEN INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS ALIGN WITH THE EVENING DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. EAST WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE, AND VANTAGE HAVE A 60% CHANCE
FOR OBSERVING GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR STRONGER BUT ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE
FOR REACHING 40 MPH. FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA BASIN,
SPOKANE AREA, AND PALOUSE, WIND GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 25 MPH.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OUR MARINE PUSHES COMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING. THE TROUGH DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
LITTLE TO NO WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. SOME RESIDUAL BREEZINESS WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH THOUGH LIGHTER THAN
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL WA.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY DELIVERING
ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION. GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE IN THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE (15-25% CHANCE) INDICATING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA. THE FRIDAY TROUGH IS A BIT
DEEPER VS WEDNESDAY INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
> 30 MPH FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION FROM THE EAST SLOPES
TO THE PALOUSE. IF THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, IT WOULD
INCLUDE EXPANDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EASTERN WA FROM NORTH IDAHO GIVEN SOME ENSEMBLES SHOWING SMALL
AMOUNTS OF CAPE SUPPORTING THIS CHANGE. THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER
IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDDAY, OTHERWISE YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INLAND AND INTO CENTRAL WA. THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PROMOTING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY MONDAY. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 70 45 77 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 68 43 74 50 73 49 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
PULLMAN 69 45 74 51 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 75 47 79 54 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 75 43 80 46 81 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 67 43 71 48 72 48 / 0 0 0 20 10 0
KELLOGG 65 43 72 49 71 49 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
MOSES LAKE 80 50 85 51 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 80 56 84 56 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 81 50 84 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page