934
FXUS66 KOTX 060527
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1027 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD
WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS
IN. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE SMALL
CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A COLD FRONT THAT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY WINDS AND A ~5 DEGREE COOLDOWN
FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 70S APART FROM SOME 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER
BASIN, OKANOGAN VALLEY, AND WENATCHEE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR NE WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE CASCADE GAPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
25-30 MPH EXPECTED AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35-40 MPH. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS 30 MPH OR HIGHER ARE WEST OF SPOKANE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY: A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLATTENING OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAPPEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN CANADA USHERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH SPOKANE, LEWISTON, AND PULLMAN SEEING
INCREASES IN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH DROP TO BELOW 50% FOR MANY PLACES IN THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR WENATCHEE AND ALONG THE CASCADE GAPS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A VERY LIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOSTLY
THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACTS INCLUDE LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINING WITH WIND GUSTS TO CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE HIGH 70S
AND LOW 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CLUSTER GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED AGREEMENT
IN HIGHER HEIGHTS STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING A 3-5 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALONGSIDE BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS AGAIN. WITH ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT, MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS TO BE SCANT AND THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT FAR NORTH IDAHO
AROUND BONNERS FERRY, ID WITH A 15% CHANCE TO EXPAND AS FAR
SOUTH AS SANDPOINT, ID AND 10% CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN WA AROUND IONE, WA. LIGHTNING, DOWNPOURS, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22-03Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 20Z OVER THE PALOUSE, SPOKANE
AREA, COLUMBIA BASIN, AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH FOR SPOKANE, PULLMAN, AND
LEWISTON AND 30-35 MPH AROUND WATERVILLE, WENATCHEE, EPHRATA,
MOSES LAKE, AND CHELAN AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23-05Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN IN FAR
NORTH IDAHO, LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CELLS TO DEVELOP IN EXTREME NE
WA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH AT CHELAN, WENATCHEE, EPHRATA,
AND MOSES LAKE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 78 50 76 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 43 74 49 74 48 68 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 45 74 51 71 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 48 80 55 79 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 80 46 82 47 73 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 71 48 73 47 67 / 0 0 20 10 0 0
KELLOGG 43 72 49 70 49 66 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 49 86 51 81 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 56 84 56 82 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 50 85 51 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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