718
FXUS66 KOTX 061750
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1050 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTH IDAHO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD
WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS
IN. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE SMALL
CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
IDAHO PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE MESSAGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS TO
BE PREPARED FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE OVER THE THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES, EACH DRAGGING A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH. EACH FRONT WILL INCREASE ONSHORE
FLOW, PILE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE TWO MAIN COLD FRONTS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL HAVE WINDS
PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE
ISN'T MUCH TO DISCUSS. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL COME
WITH WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER FAR NORTH IDAHO; ALL OTHER DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS: HREF MEAN CAPE FOR NORTH IDAHO
AND AREAS OF EASTERN WA VARY FROM 200-450 J/KG. CLOSER
EXAMINATION OF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN WA AND THE LOWER
IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE TARGET AREA FOR A FEW CELLS WILL BE
EXTREME NE WA AND FAR NORTH IDAHO LARGELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SANDPOINT TO COLVILLE. PERCENTAGES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS IN NE
WA ARE 10-15% AND INCREASE 15-30% AROUND BONNERS FERRY,
PORTHILL, AND MOYIE SPRINGS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS AND
OUTLOOK FOR LIGHTNING WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY A SURGE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR CAN PUNCH NORTHWARD INTO THIS AREA,
ORIGINATING FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE . IF DEWPOINTS CAN INCREASE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S PRIOR TO SUNSET, THEN THERE COULD BE A
FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF A 0.25"OR MORE RAINFALL AND FEW STORMS
THAT MAY NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND SMALL HAIL,
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH, AND LIGHTNING. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS IN NORTH IDAHO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 4-7PM, KEEP AN EYE TO THE
SKY.
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WINDS: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE TWO
MAIN BOUTS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOR EACH WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES AND WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS 30 MPH OR
STRONGER WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN INCREASES TO 30-60% FOR FRIDAY.
THE PEAK OF THE WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOCATIONS LIKE VANTAGE, WATERVILLE, ENTIAT, AND
EPHRATA WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (10-20%) FOR BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN,
PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE AREA WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY STRONGER SPEEDS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AROUND POMEROY AND HWY 12.
WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK (70-80S),
MINOR HEATRISK WILL BE PRESENT WHICH PRIMARILY EFFECTS THOSE
WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND NOT ACCLIMATED TO THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. FOLKS HEADING TO
RIVERS AND LAKES SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS THAT WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD WITH ELEVATED RISKS FOR HYPOTHERMIA WITHOUT PROPER
GEAR. /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT FAR NORTH IDAHO AROUND BONNERS
FERRY, ID WITH A 15% CHANCE TO EXPAND AS FAR SOUTH AS SANDPOINT,
ID AND 10% CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WA
AROUND IONE, WA. LIGHTNING, DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22-03Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 20Z OVER THE PALOUSE, SPOKANE AREA, COLUMBIA BASIN,
AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 30
MPH FOR SPOKANE, PULLMAN, AND LEWISTON AND 30-35 MPH AROUND
WATERVILLE, WENATCHEE, EPHRATA, MOSES LAKE, AND CHELAN AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 23-05Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN IN FAR
NORTH IDAHO, LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CELLS TO DEVELOP IN EXTREME NE
WA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 80 51 77 50 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 77 50 73 49 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 75 49 70 45 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 81 53 76 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 82 47 82 48 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 75 47 73 47 69 44 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 76 47 71 46 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 86 50 81 50 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 85 53 82 53 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 88 51 85 53 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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