863
FXUS66 KOTX 062313
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
413 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTH IDAHO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD
WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS
IN. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE SMALL
CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
IDAHO PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT: INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
FOR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CALM AS COLD
FRONT EXITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN LOWS OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE INLAND NORTHWEST
UNDER WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MINOR HEAT RISK THREAT CONTINUES FOR THOSE
WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND NOT ACCLIMATED TO THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. ENSEMBLES ARE SWINGING A DRY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE CASCADE VALLEYS, COLUMBIA BASIN,
AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE WEST IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S MPH. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30-40 MPH (GREATER
THAN OR EQUAL 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY).
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE GULF
OF ALASKA LOW MOVES INTO BC. THE REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE
MUCH CHANGE FROM THE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
REGION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. /JDC
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN EXPANSIVE
CIRRUS CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
FAR NORTH IDAHO AROUND REPUBLIC TO SANDPOINT (KSZT) AND BONNERS
FERRY (K65S). LIGHTNING, DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN THROUGH 04Z. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AS WELL INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER 05Z AND GUSTS DIMINISHING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON TO NORTH IDAHO (ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM COLVILLE TO SANDPOINT). /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 77 50 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 50 73 49 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 49 70 45 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 53 76 48 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 47 82 48 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 47 73 47 69 44 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 47 71 46 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 50 81 50 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 53 82 53 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 51 85 53 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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