909
FXUS66 KOTX 072303
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
403 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: A REPETITIVE, YET FLUCTUATING WEATHER PATTERN
IS ON TAP FOR THE INLAND NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EVERY 24
HOURS FEATURING EITHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OR BRIEF RIDGE
FLATTENING AND PASSAGE OF AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT. ONE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH TODAY (WEDNESDAY) SO A
RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. NEXT TROUGH WILL BE FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER RIDGE REBOUNDS ON SATURDAY ON BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
RIPPLES THROUGH SUNDAY. UNDER THE RIDGE, STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE, THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME BEHIND EACH FRONT BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE OF 30-YEAR AVERAGES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH EACH TROUGH YIELDING A 10-15% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER FAR NORTH IDAHO AND NORTHEASTERN WA AND LARGELY DRIZZLE ON
THE CASCADE CREST.
WINDS FOR FRIDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WERE NEAR 12 MB FROM PDX-
GPI (PORTLAND TO KALISPELL) AND 11 MB FROM SEA-EAT (SEATTLE TO
WENATCHEE). THIS IS WHY THE WINDS WERE LOCALLY STRONGER FOR THE
EAST SLOPES AND WESTERN BASIN VS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
GUSTS AT WENATCHEE, MOSES LAKE, EPHRATA, AND WATERVILLE WERE
BETWEEN 35-40 MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE PALOUSE, WEST PLAINS,
AND EASTERN BASIN WERE 20-30 MPH. I ANTICIPATE SIMILAR SPEEDS
WITH EVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE DUE TO THE NEXT TROUGH BEING A BIT
DEEPER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY. 85% OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THIS RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
15% OF THE MEMBERS THAT DIFFER ARE MAINLY EUROPEAN MEMBERS AND
BRING ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE PAC NW COASTLINE. WE DO START TO SEE
A TRANSITION BY LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
(~60% OF THE MEMBERS) SHIFTING THE RIDGE INLAND AND OPENING THE
DOOR TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS OFFERS "SOME" HOPE FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE INLAND THOUGH PRECISE
DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE WINDIER DAYS WHICH WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR CHOPPY LAKES. WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD AND THOSE RECREATING IN SMALLER VESSELS LIKE KAYAKS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE WINDIER DAYS. MINOR HEAT RISK
WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO 80S BUT RELIEF IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-50S. /SB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS. THERE A CHANCE
FOR BLOWING DUST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR KEPH-
KMWH AS GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KT WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND 21-23Z FOR KEAT-KMWH AND
23-02Z FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMWH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING BLOWING DUST.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 77 51 74 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 73 49 70 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 70 45 69 43 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 76 49 76 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 82 49 76 43 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 73 47 70 44 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 71 46 70 44 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 81 50 79 45 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 82 54 76 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 85 54 81 47 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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