289
FXUS66 KOTX 080831
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
131 AM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. IT FEATURES A LONGWAVE RIDGE RESIDING
OVER THE WEST WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH LATER
TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN CLEAR OUT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS BETWEEN 1:00 AND 4:00 PM IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS WILL HOEVER BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER
ACROSS THE CASCADES WHERE STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH A
NEAR CERTAINTY OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH OCCURRING AROUND
WENATCHEE TO CHELAN OUT ONTO THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU. GUSTS OF UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LARGELY REVESERVED FOR
EXPOSED RIDGES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS,
BUT ALSO WILL SEE GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAY AS WELL. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR WINDS OF 25-35 MPH
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOSES LAKE AREA AND COLUMBIA BASIN INTO
THE WEST PLAINS AN ON THE PALOUSE. STRONG CROSS WINDS MAY MAKE
DRIVING A LITTLE DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THESE WINDS ACROSS ANY RECENTLY WORKED FIELDS MAY ALSO RESULT
IN PATCHY BLOWING DUST. CHOPPY WATER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA LAKES AND WILL POSE A RISK OF CAPSIZING FOR ANYONE ON ANY
SMALL CRAFTS SUCH AS A CANOE, KAYAK, OR PADDLE BOARD. MAKE SURE
TO BE WATER SAFE AND WEAR THOSE LIFE JACKETS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THEN PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CASCADES WHERE SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE IS
EXPECTED. AS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT, BUT NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE LOWER DOWN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. BOTH OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY AND ANY DRY GRASS PRESENT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE STILL A BIT EARLY IN
THE SEASON FOR MUSH RECEPTIVE FUELS TO CARRY FIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFCANT BUMP UP IN OUR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD
80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES DIVERGE MUCH MORE BY THE
TIME WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR TUESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER OF HOW MUCH OF THIS ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH
AROUND WEDNESDAY. ALMOST HALF OF THE ECMFW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PUSHES
ACROSS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT WITH A THIRD ROUND OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THEY ALSO REFLECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT COMPARED TO THESE NEXT TWO DRIER COLD FRONTS WE'RE SET TO
SEE MOVE THROUGH. ANY RAIN WE SEE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT BUT IT WOULD AT LEAST BE SOMETHING. THEN THERE IS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DIGS MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THE TROUGH AND CLOSES OFF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WELL OFF OF THE
CALFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 90S FOR OUR
WARMER SPOTS. MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THIS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY ENERGY OFF
OF THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK WEAKENS THE RIDGE IN PLACE. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
KEPH-KMWH AS GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KT WHICH MAY BRING
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND 21-23Z FOR KEAT-
KMWH AND 23-02Z FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMWH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING BLOWING DUST. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 73 46 75 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 69 44 72 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 68 43 70 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 75 47 75 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 75 43 79 46 80 45 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 68 44 73 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 69 43 72 46 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 78 45 78 50 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 75 49 80 55 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 80 46 81 54 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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