547
FXUS66 KOTX 081730
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1030 AM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. IT FEATURES A LONGWAVE RIDGE RESIDING
OVER THE WEST WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH LATER
TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN CLEAR OUT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS BETWEEN 1:00 AND 4:00 PM IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER ACROSS THE CASCADES WHERE STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH
WITH A NEAR CERTAINTY OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH OCCURRING
AROUND WENATCHEE TO CHELAN OUT ONTO THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LARGELY
RESERVED FOR EXPOSED RIDGES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADE MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO WILL SEE GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AS WELL. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR WINDS OF 25-35 MPH OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOSES LAKE AREA AND
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE WEST PLAINS AN ON THE PALOUSE. STRONG
CROSS WINDS MAY MAKE DRIVING A LITTLE DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. THESE WINDS ACROSS ANY RECENTLY WORKED
FIELDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING DUST. CHOPPY WATER CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA LAKES AND WILL POSE A RISK OF
CAPSIZING FOR ANYONE ON ANY SMALL CRAFTS SUCH AS A CANOE, KAYAK,
OR PADDLE BOARD. MAKE SURE TO BE WATER SAFE AND WEAR THOSE LIFE
JACKETS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THEN PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CASCADES WHERE SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE IS
EXPECTED. AS WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT, BUT NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE LOWER DOWN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. BOTH OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY AND ANY DRY GRASS PRESENT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE STILL A BIT EARLY IN
THE SEASON FOR MUSH RECEPTIVE FUELS TO CARRY FIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT BUMP UP IN OUR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WHEN
WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY MAY BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES DIVERGE MUCH MORE BY THE
TIME WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR TUESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER OF HOW MUCH OF THIS ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH
AROUND WEDNESDAY. ALMOST HALF OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PUSHES ACROSS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT WITH A THIRD
ROUND OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THEY ALSO REFLECT MORE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT COMPARED TO THESE NEXT TWO DRIER
COLD FRONTS WE'RE SET TO SEE MOVE THROUGH. ANY RAIN WE SEE
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT BUT IT WOULD AT
LEAST BE SOMETHING. THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DIGS MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH
AND CLOSES OFF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WELL OFF OF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 90S
FOR OUR WARMER SPOTS. MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY ENERGY OFF OF THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK WEAKENS THE RIDGE IN
PLACE. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
KEPH-KMWH AS GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KT WHICH MAY BRING
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND 21-23Z FOR KEAT- KMWH
AND 23-02Z FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. CALMER, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMWH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING BLOWING DUST. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 73 46 74 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 69 44 71 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 68 42 69 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 75 46 75 48 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 75 42 79 45 79 44 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 68 44 72 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 69 43 71 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 78 43 78 49 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 75 48 80 54 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 80 45 81 53 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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