895
FXUS66 KOTX 091123
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
423 AM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A WARMING TREND IS COMING FOR THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY (UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S) IN CENTRAL WA AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE
CASCADES. FURTHER EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM AROUND 1-3
DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WARMING TREND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES FOR EASTERN
WA AND NORTH ID. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND REACH EASTERN WA AND NORTH
IDAHO AROUND SUNSET, USHERING IN DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL WA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, INCREASING GRASS FIRE RISK. PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT PASSAGE BRINGING A WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A 15-45% CHANCE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, COLUMBIA BASIN, L-C VALLEY,
AND WENATCHEE RIVER VALLEY TO SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS
OF THE SPRING TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE FORECAST STARTS TO DIVERGE
AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC WILL
SEEMINGLY DO ONE OF TWO THINGS. FIRST SCENARIO (65% CHANCE)
INVOLVES THE LOW PRESSURE STAYING NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO UPPER 80S IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SCENARIO (35%
CHANCE) INVOLVES A TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION,
WHICH WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AND
CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. EVENING AI GUIDANCE FROM THE EPS-
AIFS AND AIGFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SCENARIO ONE IS MORE LIKELY
WITH RENEWED WARMTH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBILY EVEN THURSDAY. THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A COOLDOWN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH LINGERS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THIS WOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID MAY IN THE REGION. /DB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS, EXCEPT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AROUND THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY, INCLUDING KOMK, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 74 47 79 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 71 46 77 47 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 69 45 75 46 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 74 48 81 50 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 78 45 79 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 72 46 75 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 71 45 80 47 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 78 49 81 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 80 55 80 51 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 80 52 81 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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