512
FXUS66 KOTX 092253
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
353 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-SUNDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT. IF ANY PRECIPITATION
FALLS FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM, IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES WITH CLOUD BASES LIMITED ABOVE 15K FT. THE EXCEPTION
IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CASCADE CREST WHERE THE MARINE LAYER WILL
ASSIST WITH MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS MAINLY IN THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME-FRAME. WIND FIELDS ARE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH IN THE LESS OF THE CASCADES AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND
20-30 MPH FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, EASTERN BASIN, PALOUSE, AND
BLUE MOUNTAINS. PEAK WINDS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 4PM-9PM. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR RECENTLY WORKED FIELDS ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND SOUTH
OF MOSES LAKE. OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE CHOPPY LAKES AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY THEN EXPAND OVER THE INW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY, SUNNY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM
TUESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S AND
FEW LOW 90S. BY WEDNESDAY, GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLES ARE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE CA COAST.
THIS LEADS TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INFLUX OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO A 10-20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IF A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE BECOMES MORE EVIDENT, COULD SEE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING BUT THIS COMES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AND WEDNESDAY LEANS TOWARD PASSING
CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN 75% OF
THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. THE REMAINING 25% HAVE
A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH THE CA LOW EJECTING THROUGH
THE NW AND WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD ALSO
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS. NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP CLOSE TABS ON. THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WITH 75% OF ITS
MEMBERS SUPPORTING ALLOWS FOR THE WARMTH TO LINGER ANOTHER DAY
WITH SUBTLE COOLING WHERE THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS/OR SHOWERS. THE
LATER SCENARIO WITH 25% OF THE MEMBERS WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES (60-70S) WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE IDEA OF A LOT
MORE WIND AS WELL GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR 20 DEGREES OF AIR MASS
COOLING.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: THERE IS A LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL
SUITES STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEEMS
LIKE ALL GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WITH
THE RETURN OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE PACNW. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. THE DETAILS HOWEVER ARE
UNCERTAINTY WITH ROUGHLY 50% OF THE ENSEMBLES DELIVERING THE
FIRST BLOW TO THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS DELAY THIS
TRANSITION TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WHEN THIS OCCURS, ANOTHER BOUT OF
GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY. THE TRANSITION WILL ALSO SUPPORT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE AREA,
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL
GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF A -25C COLD POOL IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. IF
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE, THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND
BASIN; IF DEEPER AND SLOWER, THE CHANCES FOR WETTING SHOWERS
COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE. STAY TUNED! /SB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODS OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 21Z SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 79 47 76 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 77 46 73 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 45 75 45 71 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 47 81 49 76 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 78 43 80 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 45 75 46 74 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 45 81 46 74 44 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 48 81 46 79 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 54 80 50 79 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 51 80 46 80 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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