844
FXUS66 KOTX 100733
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1233 AM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MID TO UPPER
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, BRINGING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL WA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMDITIES WILL DROP TO THE 20S BRINGING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS
FIRES. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IMPACTS AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: INCREDIBLY, MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW WARM THE INW GETS WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH
OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND. THE NBM 25-75TH SPREAD FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS 17 DEGREES AT SPOKANE AP WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE AT
70 DEGREES AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT 87 DEGREES. THE SPREAD FOR QPF
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL WITH THE 10TH PERCENTILE BRING DRY AT
SPOKANE AP AND THE 90TH HAVING JUST OVER A TENTH. I AM THINKING A
MIDDLE END SOLUTION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SOLID FETCH OF MOISTURE
WITH ORIGINS AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FACTOR LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD STEADY
RAINS WILL BE THE LACK OF FORCING. THE BEST DYNAMICS ON THE LATEST
GLOBAL SUITE WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SOUTH WITH THE LOW. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, BUT I AM SKEPTICAL OF THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IF WE HAVE A LACK OF FORCING AND CLOUD COVER TO OVERCOME.
THERE IS STILL GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UNSETTLED AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AROUND NORMAL WILL ESTABLISH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SEVERAL DAYS FOR BREEZY WINDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITION IN THE MOUNTAINS (WED-SAT). DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODS OF UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WA AS A
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CASCADES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 77 47 75 46 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 76 46 72 45 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 75 45 70 44 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 81 49 76 48 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 78 42 79 43 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 74 45 74 46 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 80 46 73 45 88 52 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 81 46 79 48 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 79 51 79 53 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 80 46 80 49 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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