600
FXUS66 KOTX 102002
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
102 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY
AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS IN. WEAR A
LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. WARMING AND DRYING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE WARMTH WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN BEGIN TO COOL LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COME WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ON THE
WA COAST AND WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE INLAND NW THIS EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL GIVE THE COLD FRONT A SHOVE INLAND IS
CLOSING IN ON PORTLAND, OR AND WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE N CASCADES AND INTO SOUTHERN BC. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
SPEEDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND WESTERN BASIN. CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WA BUT MAJORITY OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE ARE RUNNING 7-12
DEGREES WARMER. AS WINDS INCREASE THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND BETWEEN
VANTAGE AND MOSES LAKE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND CANADIAN
BORDER AS THE TROUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: A WARMING AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND.
THIS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM BY TUESDAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S AND FEW LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: PRECISE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST BECOME A
BIT MORE UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. THERE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INLAND INTO CENTRAL
MT AS COMPACT UPPER LOW WOBBLES TOWARD THE OREGON COAST. THIS
LEADS TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF ANY SMALLER IMPULSES EJECT
FROM THE FEATURE LEADS TO MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN OUR
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A LIKELY SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION
ALONE DUE TO CIN VALUES ON THE ORDER OF -40 TO -90 J/KG. THE NBM
DOES CARRY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS LIKELY DUE TO SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE LOW TAKE A
MORE NORTHWARD INLAND TRACK AND PROVIDING SOME LIFT. MAJORITY
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OR/CA COAST
THEN TRACK IT THROUGH OREGON. BY THURSDAY-SATURDAY, A SECONDARY
LOW COMING FROM THE GULF OF AK COMES INTO THE PICTURE AND SENDS
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES THROUGH. THIS PERIOD LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN INCREASED ODDS FOR FORCING.
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THESE IMPULSES OFFER A GLANCING BLOW TO
NORTH CASCADES AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR COME IN DEEPER AND
SWING THROUGH THE BASIN. THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE WHERE
CONVECTION CAN FIRE AND HOW MUCH SHADOWING OCCURS IN THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES. SO MANY DETAILS TO STILL IRON OUT BEFORE
IDENTIFYING WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCUR AND HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST POPS WHICH AT THIS TIME, BLEND MANY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS TOGETHER. WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT THE WARMTH
WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRANSITION DAYS AND LIKELY BREEZY. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AS WARM AS THE 80S OR COOL AS THE 70S, THEN
UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY, AND FINALLY INTO THE 60-70S
FRIDAY. TO GIVEN SOME CONTEXT, THERE IS A 12F SPREAD BETWEEN THE
25-75TH PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SPOKANE WEDNESDAY;
17F FOR THURSDAY; AND 7F FRIDAY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS COMPOUNDED
FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR A TROUGH, LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A RIDGE, AND
SLIGHT MAJORITY SHOWING ZONAL FLOW. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BATTLE
SETTING UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AK. THIS RESULTS IN A
STRENGTHENING ZONAL JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS JET NOSES
TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST WITH TIME AND WOULD FAVOR THE ZONAL
FLOW BUT EXACTLY WHEN THAT TIME COMES IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS
POINT, BEST ODDS LEAN TOWARD DRYING AND WARMING COMING OUT OF
SATURDAY. /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A DRY COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT USHERING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER 22Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 05-08Z WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TOWARD
SUNRISE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS DURATION OF WIND GUSTS AT KEAT, KMWH, AND KGEG.
THERE A SLIM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND CANADIAN
BORDER, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE RISK IS LOW.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 74 45 84 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 72 45 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 45 69 43 83 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 49 75 47 87 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 41 78 42 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 45 74 45 83 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 46 72 44 88 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 45 78 46 89 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 50 78 52 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 45 79 48 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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