230
FXUS66 KOTX 110705
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1205 AM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RESULTING IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM, RISING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO COOL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LATE-
WEEK PATTERN SHIFT WILL COME WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING
SUNDAY'S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER AND
WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
MID MAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS IN LOW 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WARMER SPOTS OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN
(EPHRATA, MOSES LAKE, MATTAWA) AND DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: DETAILS IN THE FORECAST BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL PLACE THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW,
USHERING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE
TRAJECTORY THE LOW, WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE
CAN EXPECT. AROUND 45 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THE LOW
MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE 20 PERCENT SHOW IT
TRACKING FURTHER NORTH, TAKING A DIRECT PATH ACROSS WASHINGTON.
THE OTHER 35 PERCENT OF MEMBERS ARE GOING FOR SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE, SUGGESTING THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OREGON. IF THE LOW
STAYS AS FAR SOUTH AS CALIFORNIA, WE'LL SEE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION, BUT IF IT TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER WASHINGTON, WE COULD
SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 TO OVER 0.5
INCHES. A MORE DIRECT TRACK OVER THE REGION WOULD ALSO MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
OPPOSED TO STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS
LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE 20 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PREDICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASED LIFT TO TRIGGER STORMS.
A SECOND LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SENDING ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH. THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN INCREASED ODDS FOR THE NECESSARY
FORCING.
BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS STRONGER AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITIONAL DAYS WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH 06-09Z IN THE LEE OF A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING BY SUNRISE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE
FROM PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 73 45 84 53 76 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 71 45 84 53 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
PULLMAN 69 43 84 52 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
LEWISTON 75 47 87 56 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 30 30
COLVILLE 78 41 86 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 10 30 30
SANDPOINT 73 46 83 52 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 30 30
KELLOGG 72 44 88 52 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
MOSES LAKE 77 46 89 54 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 77 52 86 59 80 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
OMAK 78 49 87 56 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 30 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page