933
FXUS66 KOTX 120624
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1124 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RESULTING IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY LAKES, STRONG
CROSS WINDS, AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM, RISING INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S, THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO COOL LATE IN
THE WEEK. A WEATHER SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY THE 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE PUSHING INTO OREGON. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REVEAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW, WHICH
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A FASTER, MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD FAVOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO BETTER ALIGNMENT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING. ON THE OTHER HAND, A SLOWER OR MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD DELAY THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHER.
REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFIC TRACK, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BRING A RISK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
NBM 50TH PERCENTILES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
0.50 INCHES WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE AREA, AND PALOUSE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES
ARE AROUND 0.15 INCHES OR LESS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL TIGHTEN CROSS-
CASCADE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MODELED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FOR SEA- EAT (+6 TO +12MB) AND PDX- GEG (+9 TO +14MB) GRADIENTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE
GAPS INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO THE SPOKANE/PALOUSE
REGION. IF THE HIGHER END OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS VERIFY,
THESE WOULD SUPPORT WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 40-55 MPH (40-70% CHANCE). THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN
CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE REGION
TRANSITIONS INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY.
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPECIFICS OF THESE SYSTEMS INTRODUCES A GOOD
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST, BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE IS
THAT THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION. IF
THE TREND TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND OCCURS,
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 36F
ARE 40-80% FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND 30-60% FOR THE COLUMBIA
BASIN, SPOKANE AREA, AND PALOUSE. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON 9-13 KNOTS FROM 12-18Z
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AFTER 18Z BUT
SPEEDS DECREASE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 83 53 68 45 65 / 0 0 0 60 40 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 84 53 66 45 63 / 0 0 0 70 60 0
PULLMAN 43 83 51 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 50 40 0
LEWISTON 47 87 56 71 48 68 / 0 0 0 50 40 0
COLVILLE 41 85 49 72 39 70 / 0 0 20 70 50 0
SANDPOINT 45 83 51 68 43 63 / 0 0 0 70 70 10
KELLOGG 44 88 52 69 44 61 / 0 0 0 70 80 10
MOSES LAKE 47 89 53 73 44 71 / 0 0 0 50 0 0
WENATCHEE 52 85 57 69 49 68 / 0 0 10 60 0 0
OMAK 48 87 55 74 43 72 / 0 0 10 70 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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