977
FXUS66 KOTX 120801
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
101 AM PDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RESULTING IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY LAKES, STRONG CROSS
WINDS, AND ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED.
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND VERY WARM TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S, THEN CONDITIONS TURN COOLER AND WETTER
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY WINDS AND CHANCES
FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY: AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT NOTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DESPITE THE WARM AIR
TEMPERATURES, WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
COLD WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA. PLEASE USE CAUTION AND WEAR A
LIFE JACKET WHEN RECREATING ON OR NEAR WATER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MONTANA AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE WEST. SINCE YESTERDAY, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE LOW WITH NEARLY ALL MEMBERS NOW DEPICTING A TRACK INLAND
ALONG THE WA/OR BORDER. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL PLACE THE INLAND
NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW, USHERING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 60 TO 90 PERCENT REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CASCADE CREST, NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AND ID PANHANDLE WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 TO
0.5 INCHES. FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALL
BETWEEN 0.07 TO 0.15 INCHES. CENTRAL WA WILL SEE THE LOWEST PRECIP
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 0.10 INCHES. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIP, THE LOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST ALWAYS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS, AND THIS CASE IS NO DIFFERENT. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS). WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF EASTERN WA AND A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE POMEROY/ANATONE/PEOLA AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY ONWARD: MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IF
THIS PANS OUT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO DEVELOP. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON 9-13 KNOTS FROM 12-18Z
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AFTER 18Z BUT
SPEEDS DECREASE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 84 53 67 44 65 43 / 0 0 60 40 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 84 53 65 45 62 43 / 0 10 70 70 0 10
PULLMAN 83 51 63 42 61 41 / 0 0 60 40 0 0
LEWISTON 88 56 70 48 69 46 / 0 0 50 30 0 0
COLVILLE 85 49 71 37 69 37 / 0 20 70 50 0 10
SANDPOINT 83 55 66 42 62 42 / 0 0 70 80 0 0
KELLOGG 88 53 67 43 60 42 / 0 0 70 90 30 10
MOSES LAKE 90 54 70 44 71 42 / 0 0 70 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 86 57 67 48 69 46 / 0 20 70 0 0 0
OMAK 87 57 72 41 71 42 / 0 10 80 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOSES LAKE
AREA-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COEUR
D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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