943
FXUS66 KOTX 120910
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
210 AM PDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RESULTING IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY LAKES, STRONG CROSS
WINDS, AND ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED.
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND VERY WARM TODAY, WITH HIGH INT THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
CONDITIONS TURN COOLER WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY: AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT NOTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DESPITE THE WARM AIR
TEMPERATURES, WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
COLD WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA. PLEASE USE CAUTION AND WEAR A
LIFE JACKET WHEN RECREATING ON OR NEAR WATER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE
PLACE MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MONTANA AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE WEST. SINCE
YESTERDAY, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WITH NEARLY ALL MEMBERS NOW
DEPICTING A TRACK INLAND ALONG THE WA/OR BORDER. THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL PLACE THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW,
USHERING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS TRACK WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POPS RANGING FROM 60 TO 90 PERCENT
REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE CASCADE CREST, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND ID
PANHANDLE WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES. FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALL BETWEEN 0.07 TO
0.15 INCHES. CENTRAL WA WILL SEE THE LOWEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 0.10 INCHES. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIP, THE LOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST ALWAYS
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, AND THIS CASE IS NO DIFFERENT. WINDS
WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS). WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN WA AND A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POMEROY/ANATONE/PEOLA AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY ONWARD: MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. IF THIS PANS OUT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY COOL OFF
ENOUGH FOR FROST TO DEVELOP. /FEWKES
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TODAY AND STARTS TO MOVE OUT
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AM. VFR EXPECTED. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND SOME INCREASING MIDDLE CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AM. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORMS DEVELOPS AFTER 06-08Z WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NEAR THE CASCADES. BREEZY WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST A SYSTEM START TO
APPROACH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES NEAR KEAT, WITH SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 84 53 67 44 65 43 / 0 0 60 40 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 84 53 65 45 62 43 / 0 10 70 70 0 10
PULLMAN 83 51 63 42 61 41 / 0 0 60 40 0 0
LEWISTON 88 56 70 48 69 46 / 0 0 50 30 0 0
COLVILLE 85 49 71 37 69 37 / 0 20 70 50 0 10
SANDPOINT 83 55 66 42 62 42 / 0 0 70 80 0 0
KELLOGG 88 53 67 43 60 42 / 0 0 70 90 30 10
MOSES LAKE 90 54 70 44 71 42 / 0 0 70 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 86 57 67 48 69 46 / 0 20 70 0 0 0
OMAK 87 57 72 41 71 42 / 0 10 80 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOSES LAKE
AREA-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COEUR
D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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