780
FXUS66 KOTX 130828
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
128 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY LAKES, STRONG CROSS
WINDS, AND ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHERE PRECIPITATION
IS LIMITED.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER WEDNESDAY, WITH
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. BREEZY
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY
INLAND OFF THE PNW COAST. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT. LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOWS HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH AND DRY LIGHTNING. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND, IT
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WASHINGTON AND IDAHO. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY, BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAINS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.10
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES
WILL INCREASE, BRINGING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE PEAK OF THE WINDS WILL
HAPPEN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. NBM SHOWS MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH FOR MANY PLACES, AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THESE MAGNITUDES, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT FROM THE WENATCHEE AND
WATERVILLE PLATEAU AREA EASTWARD, THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
FROM THESE WINDS ARE BLOWING UNSECURED OBJECTS, TREE LIMBS, THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW POWER OUTAGES, AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES, NEARLY
4-7 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA, IT WILL BRING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND THE CASCADES. THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE CASCADES IS 1-4 INCHES. THE BASIN AND LOWLANDS WILL MOSTLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER, THESE COLDER CONDITIONS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ISSUES, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHERE
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 36 DEGREES. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 20Z AS
CEILINGS TREND DOWN TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
START WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z, AND CEILINGS START TO RECOVER
AROUND THIS TIME. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW CEILINGS STAYING AT MVFR
DURING SHOWERS, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CEILINGS LESS THAN
10% AT EACH TERMINAL. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WITH
INCREASED DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON
AND THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL
12Z. AS OF 06Z THERE IS A CELL APPROACHING GEG/SFF SO HAVE
ENTERED VCTS IN THE TAFS, BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PUT THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AT OTHER TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, AND
THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND SMALL
HAIL.
AROUND 12Z, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
20-25KTS AND GUSTS 30-35KTS FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND PALOUSE. BY 18Z, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KTS
AND WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS. THESE WILL BE THE PEAK WINDS, AND WILL
LAST THROUGH 06Z AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AROUND 20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS INCREASING STARTING
12Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING SPECIFIC TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. MOST
IMPACTFUL ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR ANY AIRPORTS, WHICH WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED FOR ANY
AMENDMENTS. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 65 44 64 42 61 38 / 90 50 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 64 44 63 42 59 38 / 80 80 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 61 41 61 40 59 38 / 70 30 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 68 46 68 46 65 43 / 50 20 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 69 36 67 35 63 32 / 100 70 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 65 42 62 40 58 37 / 80 90 0 0 10 50
KELLOGG 67 42 60 41 58 38 / 80 90 10 10 10 30
MOSES LAKE 68 45 69 41 66 37 / 90 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 65 48 67 44 63 40 / 90 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 69 41 69 39 64 35 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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