140
FXUS66 KOTX 131131
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
431 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY LAKES, STRONG CROSS
WINDS, AND ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHERE PRECIPITATION
IS LIMITED.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER WEDNESDAY, WITH
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. BREEZY
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS
WAY INLAND OFF THE PNW COAST. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO USHERING IN
A COLD FRONT. LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MAIN
HAZARDS BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND DRY
LIGHTNING. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND, IT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WASHINGTON AND IDAHO. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY, BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAINS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
0.10 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WILL INCREASE, BRINGING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE PEAK
OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. NBM SHOWS MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH FOR MANY
PLACES, AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WITH THESE
MAGNITUDES, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT FROM THE WENATCHEE AND WATERVILLE
PLATEAU AREA EASTWARD, THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS FROM
THESE WINDS ARE BLOWING UNSECURED OBJECTS, TREE LIMBS, THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW POWER OUTAGES, AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850MB
TEMPERATURES, NEARLY 4-7 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA, IT WILL BRING SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THE CASCADES. THE
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR SNOW ALONG THE CASCADES IS 1-4 INCHES.
THE BASIN AND LOWLANDS WILL MOSTLY BE DRY. HOWEVER, THESE
COLDER CONDITIONS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ISSUES,
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHERE THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES
LESS THAN 36 DEGREES. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A COLD FRONT MOVING IN WILL TRANSITION THE AREA
FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS TO AREAS OF RAIN
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING TO
AFTENROON, BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT WITH THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THAT WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW BETWEEN 18Z TO 00 OR 03Z.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25KTS, WITH GUST TO
35KTS FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PALOUSE THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASES TO 25-30KTS WITH GUSTS
35-45KTS. THESE WILL BE THE PEAK WINDS, AND WILL LAST THROUGH
03-06Z, THEN DECLINE A LITTLE INTO THURSDAY AM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AROUND 18Z; MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW THROUGH 00-03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD 08-12Z THURSDAY AROUND KPUW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 65 44 64 42 61 38 / 90 50 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 64 44 63 42 59 38 / 80 80 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 61 41 61 40 59 38 / 70 30 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 68 46 68 46 65 43 / 50 20 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 69 36 67 35 63 32 / 100 70 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 65 42 62 40 58 37 / 80 90 0 0 10 50
KELLOGG 67 42 60 41 58 38 / 80 90 10 10 10 30
MOSES LAKE 68 45 69 41 66 37 / 90 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 65 48 67 44 63 40 / 90 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 69 41 69 39 64 35 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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