201
FXUS66 KOTX 311131
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
431 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PAIR
OF SYSTEMS.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN A QUASI-STALLED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NORTHERN MONTANA AND A GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
THE SETUP WILL BRING DRY, WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON. PRECIP CHANCES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE 10-20% AS
PULSES FROM THE ALBERTA LOW CROSS THE ROCKIES. MONDAYS HAS THE
STRONGEST PULSE AND BEST CHANCE OF BRINGING DECENT PRECIP TO
THESE AREAS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF SANDPOINT
IN IDAHO. THE 25-75 PROBABILITY PERCENTILES RANGE FROM 0.25-1.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO HALF AN INCH.
WEAKER INSTABILITY HAS LOWERED THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STRAY STRIKE COULD STILL OCCUR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BEING PUSHED INTO THE REGION. THE RANGE FOR NOW
IS UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS
TO A WEST-EAST PATTERN AND PUSHING THE STALLED LOW OUT OF THE
MONTANA AREA. IT WILL THE GULF OF ALASKA TO SWING A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WITH
THE WAVE HAS THUNDER PROBABILITIES AT 10-20% FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UP TO 10% FOR THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ON PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT CURRENTLY RANGE IS NONE TO A QUARTER OF
INCH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING TO GENERALLY QUIET AS A
SMALL RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING WAVE AND
INCOMING LOW. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND TRACK. EITHER WAY, COOLER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS. WINDS ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS WILL RELAX THOUGH THE
MORNING. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WINDS THROUGH THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BECOME BREEZY, WITH GUSTS
10-15KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND INTO THE NEXT ONE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 10K FEET THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 71 47 66 46 70 47 / 0 10 20 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 66 49 63 47 68 48 / 0 10 30 10 10 0
PULLMAN 64 44 66 43 69 45 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 71 50 73 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 73 43 67 41 72 42 / 0 0 50 20 10 0
SANDPOINT 63 47 60 45 66 46 / 10 30 60 30 30 0
KELLOGG 63 47 63 46 68 46 / 10 20 40 20 20 0
MOSES LAKE 77 49 76 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 76 54 77 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 77 51 74 51 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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