703
FXUS66 KOTX 311818
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1118 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PAIR
OF SYSTEMS.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN A QUASI-STALLED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NORTHERN MONTANA AND A GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
THE SETUP WILL BRING DRY, WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON. PRECIP CHANCES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE 10-20% AS
PULSES FROM THE ALBERTA LOW CROSS THE ROCKIES. MONDAYS HAS THE
STRONGEST PULSE AND BEST CHANCE OF BRINGING DECENT PRECIP TO
THESE AREAS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF SANDPOINT
IN IDAHO. THE 25-75 PROBABILITY PERCENTILES RANGE FROM 0.25-1.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO HALF AN INCH.
WEAKER INSTABILITY HAS LOWERED THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STRAY STRIKE COULD STILL OCCUR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BEING PUSHED INTO THE REGION. THE RANGE FOR NOW
IS UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS
TO A WEST-EAST PATTERN AND PUSHING THE STALLED LOW OUT OF THE
MONTANA AREA. IT WILL THE GULF OF ALASKA TO SWING A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WITH
THE WAVE HAS THUNDER PROBABILITIES AT 10-20% FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UP TO 10% FOR THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ON PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT CURRENTLY RANGE IS NONE TO A QUARTER OF
INCH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING TO GENERALLY QUIET AS A
SMALL RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING WAVE AND
INCOMING LOW. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND TRACK. EITHER WAY, COOLER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: THE INLAND NORTHWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SUBTLE RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
WESTERN MONTANA. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL BRING A CONSISTENT
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO. FOR TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES (40-80%)
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, INCLUDING KCOE,
KSZT, AND BONNERS FERRY AFTER 12Z MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG THE ID/MT BORDER. SHOWER CHANCES (20-60%) EXPAND
INTO NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 71 47 65 45 71 46 / 0 0 20 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 66 48 63 46 70 48 / 0 10 50 10 0 0
PULLMAN 64 44 66 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
LEWISTON 71 50 73 50 76 51 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
COLVILLE 73 42 68 40 73 41 / 0 0 40 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 63 46 59 44 67 45 / 10 50 80 40 10 0
KELLOGG 63 47 61 45 69 45 / 10 20 70 10 10 0
MOSES LAKE 77 49 77 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 76 54 78 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 77 51 75 50 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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