331
FXUS66 KOTX 312253
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
353 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO
THROUGH TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PAIR
OF SYSTEMS.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A SHOWERY REGIME EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
REGIME BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE EARLY WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WILL BE
COOLER AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
IN THE PANHANDLE) AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW LOITERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN FAR NE WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AS A VORT MAX PIVOTS
WEST FROM MT INTO ID. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN
COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA, LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES IN THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE
HIGH 60S TO LOW 80S. FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AT KELLOGG
AND SANDPOINT. THOSE CHANCES INCREASE TO 50% AT BONNERS FERRY. THESE
CHANCES REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY MEAGER AROUND 100-500 J/KG SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT FOR
FORCING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RANGES AROUND 10-30% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SE WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF ANOTHER TROUGH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: THE INLAND NORTHWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SUBTLE RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
WESTERN MONTANA. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL BRING A CONSISTENT
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES (40-80%) BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, INCLUDING KCOE, KSZT, AND
BONNERS FERRY AFTER 12Z MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG
THE ID/MT BORDER. SHOWER CHANCES (20-60%) EXPAND INTO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON, INCLUDING KGEG AND KSFF, AFTER 18Z-20Z MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 47 65 45 71 46 77 / 0 20 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 48 63 46 70 48 77 / 10 50 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 44 66 43 70 45 75 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 50 73 50 76 51 81 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 42 68 40 73 41 79 / 0 40 10 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 46 59 44 67 45 75 / 50 80 40 10 0 10
KELLOGG 47 61 45 69 45 77 / 20 70 10 10 0 0
MOSES LAKE 49 77 48 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 54 78 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OMAK 51 75 50 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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