009
FXUS66 KOTX 012051
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
151 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO
THROUGH TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PAIR
OF SYSTEMS.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A SHOWERY REGIME EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
REGIME BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 10 TO 30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
RETURN.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY: LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER, BUT THAT
INFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DEEPER CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND ID.
THESE MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS, BUT A FEW
AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE (UP TO 0.05 INCHES OR SO). FARTHER
WEST WILL BE DRIER WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS. THE BREEZY WINDS FROM THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TO THE
WESTERN BASIN WILL GUST AT 15-30 MPH. AS WE HEAD INTO LATER
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE
AND THE SHOWER CHANCES LINGER MAINLY NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER.
WINDS WILL DECREASE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID-80S, WITH THE
MILDEST READINGS OVER THE DEEPER BASIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
AK PUSHES TOWARD THE BC COAST. THIS EJECTS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE FIRST CHANCES START NEAR THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY AND EXPAND EASTWARD LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 20-50%, LOWEST IN THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES AND DEEPER BASIN. CHANCES THEN RETREAT TO
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES THURSDAY, WITH THE CONTINUED RISK FOR
T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE T-STORMS COULD BE
LOCALLY STRONG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT A REPEAT OF
LAST WEEK'S STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS, FOCUSED NEAR THE CASCADES AND
WESTERN BASIN. BUT THE EASTERN BASIN INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS DRIER,
BUT THE PARENT GULF OF AK TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES,
LARGELY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE COMBINATION OF WINDS
AND LOWER RH VALUES HEADING INTO THIS PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, THOUGH RH VALUES ARE IN CRITICAL AREAS STRICTLY
SPEAKING IT IS CLOSE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN 70S TO MID-80S WEDNESDAY,
LARGELY 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER 60S TO MID-70S ON THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY. LOW
ARE LARGELY FORECAST TO BE IN 40S THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOWER TO MID-50S IN THE DEEPER BASIN AND L-C VALLEY.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S ARE FORECAST,
WITH SUNDAY THE COOLEST MORNING AND PERHAPS MONDAY NOT MUCH
MILDER. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE COLD FOR ANYONE HEADING
INTO THE BACKCOUNTRY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME MID-30S AND
POSSIBLE FROST IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS, BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. YET ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE PROBABILITY OF <=30F AROUND 30-60%. SO THIS WILL NEED
TO MONITORED FOR ANYONE WITH SUCH CONCERNS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH A
LOW TO THE EAST WILL BRING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND AROUND GEG/SFF/COE, AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE BONNERS FERRY,
SANDPOINT AND COLVILLE. SMALL CHANCES WILL BE FOUND NEAR PUW
TOO. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WA/ID BORDER
EASTWARD. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 02-03Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH FROM KOMK TO KMWH AND AT TIMES
BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM KGEG TO RITZVILLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
CEILINGS IN NORTH IDAHO AND EXTREME NE WA WILL LOWER TOWARD 5K
FT AGL WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. NBM HAS A 5-15% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE OUTER RIM OF THE HEAVIER CLOUD DECK THIS
AFTERNOON. HREF HAS LESS THAN A 5% AND LEANING TOWARD MAINLY A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS VS LIGHTNING TODAY. 10% LIGHTNING
THREAT LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 73 47 78 50 72 / 10 0 0 0 40 10
COEUR D'ALENE 46 72 49 78 52 70 / 20 10 0 0 40 20
PULLMAN 42 72 46 76 48 68 / 10 0 0 0 50 10
LEWISTON 50 78 52 82 55 76 / 10 0 0 0 60 20
COLVILLE 40 76 43 79 45 74 / 20 10 0 10 50 40
SANDPOINT 45 70 47 76 50 69 / 30 10 0 0 40 30
KELLOGG 45 71 47 79 51 69 / 20 10 0 0 50 30
MOSES LAKE 48 81 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 10
WENATCHEE 55 81 57 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 30 20 0
OMAK 48 80 53 82 53 79 / 0 0 10 10 20 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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