204
FXUS66 KOTX 021715
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1015 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO
FOR TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PAIR
OF SYSTEMS.
- WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A SHOWERY REGIME EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
REGIME BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 10% TO 30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
RETURN.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, THE LOW OVER
MONTANA STARTS TO SHIFT EAST. TODAY WILL BE DRY, WARM FOR MOST
OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE 10-30% FOR NORTH
IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE 25-75 PROBABILITY PERCENTILES RANGE FROM
0.03-0.10 OF AN INCH. THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS AND
SPOKANE TO PULLMAN HAS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS
TO A WEST-EAST PATTERN AND PUSHING THE STALLED LOW OUT OF
MONTANA. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES TO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE HAS T-STORM PROBABILITIES AT 10-30%
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UP TO 10% FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE 25-75
PROBABILITY RANGE FOR PRECIP AMOUNT IS AROUND 0.1-0.3 OF AN
INCH THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL START QUIET AS A SMALL RIDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING WAVE AND INCOMING LOW. BY
THE AFTERNOON, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS AND GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.
ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOW. IT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND A LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCER WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE TRENDING INTO
THE MID 30S ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. FROST POCKETS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN
WA AND ID, AS MOISTURE WRAPS BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST WA AND ID PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS, LARGELY AWAY FROM ANY TERMINALS. TAF SITES THEMSELVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
LOCALIZED MTN OBSCRNS POSSIBLE AROUND SANDPOINT, BONNERS FERRY,
AND MULLAN.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 73 48 77 50 73 47 / 0 0 30 40 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 72 49 76 52 71 48 / 10 0 20 40 10 0
PULLMAN 72 46 74 48 69 44 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
LEWISTON 78 52 80 54 76 50 / 0 0 20 30 0 0
COLVILLE 76 44 78 45 75 42 / 10 0 20 40 10 0
SANDPOINT 70 48 76 50 70 46 / 10 0 10 30 10 0
KELLOGG 71 48 77 51 70 46 / 20 0 20 40 10 0
MOSES LAKE 81 52 81 48 79 46 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
WENATCHEE 81 58 78 54 77 52 / 0 0 50 10 0 0
OMAK 80 52 81 51 79 49 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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