948
FXUS66 KOTX 022329
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
429 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
- OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WITH A 10% TO 30% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH PERIODIC
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY, WHILE A WAVE ROUNDING THE GULF OF AK LOW
PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS WILL FALL APART
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT OVER THE NE
WA AND ID MOUNTAINS ENDING. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID-50S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE LOW IN THE GULF OF AK
CONTINUES TOWARD THE BC COAST AND EJECTS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
AREA, BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. THE FIRST CHANCES START NEAR THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND EXPAND EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE
WANING. THE PEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BETWEEN ABOUT MIDDAY
TO 9 PM. I ADJUSTED POPS UP COMPARED TO THE NBM, AS MOST CAM
MODELS AND HREF GUIDANCE SHOWED AN EARLIER POTENTIAL. THE TROUGH
IS NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND IT ENCOUNTERS SOME INSTABILITY, BUT
THE LARGEST SCALE LIFT (LOOKING AT THE DIV-Q/OMEGA COUPLET)
SITS NEAR TO SOUTH OF CWA. REGIONAL CAPE VALUES AVERAGE BETWEEN
100-400 J/KG; AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S, WITH ABOUT 15-25KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. OVERALL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THIS IS ALL TO SAY, THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THE STORMS THE AREA HAD LAST WEEK. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, SMALL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.
WINDS, IN GENERAL, WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
STARTING NEAR THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN AND THOSE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, WITH THE HIGHER
OF THESE RANGES NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS INTO THE WESTERN BASIN.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S.
THURSDAY TO TUESDAY: THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE EJECTS EAST, WHILE
THE GULF OF AK LOW MIGRATES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW COMES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
OF THIS CARVES OUT A BROADER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. SHOWER
CHANCES LINGER NEAR THE NORTHEAST WA AND ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAIN
THURSDAY, BUT OTHERWISE THE AREA LOOKS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES EXPAND BACK IN THIS WEEKEND, STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST DAYS, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY FOR BROADER SHOWER CHANCES.
SOME EMBEDDED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE. COLDER AIR
COMING IN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW
AROUND THE CASCADE CREST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, INCLUDING
NEAR STEVENS PASS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, IF
ANY, AND WILL NOT IMPACT TRAVEL.
WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY BREEZY AT TIMES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK THE BREEZIEST,
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
AND LOCAL NEAR 40 MPH NEAR THE CASCADES AND DOWNWIND OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, UPPER 60S TO MID-70S ON THE WEEKEND, BEFORE WARMING
TOWARD THE MID-70S TO MID-80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN 40S THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LOWER TO
MID-50S IN THE DEEPER BASIN AND L-C VALLEY. SATURDAY TO MONDAY
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S, WITH SUNDAY THE
COOLEST MORNING AND PERHAPS MONDAY NOT MUCH MILDER.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUIET COLD FOR ANYONE HEADING INTO THE
BACK-COUNTRY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME MID-30S AND POSSIBLE FROST
IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
PROBABILITY OF <=30F AROUND 30-60%. SO THIS WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR ANYONE WITH SUCH CONCERNS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN
WA AND ID THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST WA AND ID PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS, LARGELY AWAY FROM ANY TERMINALS. TAF SITES THEMSELVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
THE WEST AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 48 77 50 73 47 72 / 0 30 40 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 49 76 52 71 48 71 / 0 20 40 10 0 0
PULLMAN 46 74 48 69 44 70 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
LEWISTON 52 80 54 76 50 78 / 0 20 30 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 78 45 75 42 73 / 0 20 40 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 48 76 50 70 46 71 / 0 10 30 10 0 0
KELLOGG 48 77 51 70 46 72 / 0 20 40 10 0 0
MOSES LAKE 52 81 48 79 46 76 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 78 54 77 52 74 / 0 50 10 0 0 0
OMAK 52 81 51 79 49 75 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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