483
FXUS66 KOTX 031146
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
446 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
- OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WITH A 10% TO 30% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH PERIODIC
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AS THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW BEGINS TO PRESS A SHORTWAVE
INTO THE CASCADES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES
TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE HAS THUNDER PROBABILITIES AT 15-30%
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AROUND 10-15% FOR THE LOWLANDS.
IMPACTS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND INFREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE 25 TO 75 PROBABILITY RANGE FOR PRECIP AMOUNT IS
AROUND 0.1-0.3 OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT. CASCADE VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE LOW 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A STABLE PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MILD, DRY
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS AND GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BRING THE LOW
THROUGH THE REGION OF SATURDAY. IT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND A
LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCER WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY BUT WEAKER THAN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT, ENSEMBLES ARE
LEANING TO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL CHILLY. POCKETS OF FROST
IS CONCERN FOR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THESE AREAS
HAVE AROUND 40-60% PROBABILITY OF BEING BELOW 35 DEGREES. LOWS
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND START OF NEXT WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIFT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST REACHING KEAT-KALW
19-20Z, KPUW-KGEG-KOMK 21-23Z, AND KMLP-KCQV 00-01Z. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, EACH SITE HAS 1-3 HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACTIVITY. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN
CORES. GREATEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING (50-60% CHANCE) WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH 20-30% CHANCE KGEG-KSFF-KCOE
AND 10-15% CHANCE FOR KPUW-KLWS. KMWH-KEAT COME WITH A 5-10%
CHANCE. BRIEF WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KLWS-KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE GIVEN THE LATER TIMING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND KEAT
FOLLOWING THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT KEAT
02-06Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z.
UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES WILL SET UP AND
COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING. HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY FAVORING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND JUST SOUTH OF KLWS FOR THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHTNING. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN WA. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WIND GUSTS COULD BE
STRONGER AROUND KLWS-KPUW IF MORE COMPACT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORMS OVER NE OREGON AND TRACKS THROUGH THIS AREA BETWEEN
23-01Z. MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA TO KLWS-KPUW WITH FUTURE UPDATES
BUT PROBABILISTICALLY, THESE AREAS COME WITH A LOWER THREAT
COMPARED TO KGEG-KCOE NORTHWARD. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 76 49 73 47 72 45 / 30 40 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 76 51 70 47 70 47 / 20 40 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 74 48 68 43 69 44 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 79 54 76 50 78 51 / 20 30 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 78 45 75 42 72 38 / 20 40 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 75 50 69 46 69 45 / 10 30 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 77 50 69 45 72 47 / 20 40 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 80 48 78 46 75 42 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 77 53 77 52 72 48 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 79 49 79 49 74 43 / 20 20 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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