601
FXUS66 KOTX 032054
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
154 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
- OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WITH A 10% TO 30% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH PERIODIC
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE THREAT RETREATING TO THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
AND IDAHO PANHANDLE ZONES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE SHARP SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING AROUND THE GULF OF AK LOW AND
WILL BE BISECTING WA STATE AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON, PUSHING
INTO MONTANA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING FOR THIS WAVE YESTERDAY, IT STRETCHES AS IT MOVES
EAST AND THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT SPLITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
AND BY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER CAPE
VALUES ROUGHLY BETWEEN 100-400 J/KG, DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S
TO LOWER 50S AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 15-20KTS, LOCALLY NEAR 30KTS
OVER SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LOWER ID PANHANDLE. OVERALL THIS IS
NOT CONDUCIVE TO THE VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A FEW COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ANYWHERE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS, BUT
SOUTHEAST WA/LOWER ID WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK WITH THAT
STRONGER SHEAR. THE NEXT HIGHEST RISK WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH
CASCADES WITH THE NORTH SPLIT OF THAT BEST LIFT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN WILL BE MONITORED NEAR BURN SCARS, SHOULD THEY
BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE
GUSTY, FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WA
AND THE PALOUSE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-30 MPH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S.
THURSDAY: DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH A FLATTER WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER AIR, BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE GULF OF AK LOW.
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST CWA AND AROUND 100 J/KG
OF CAPE WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER RISK NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID BORDER WITH BC.
SMALL CHANCES WILL ALSO BE FOUND NEAR THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES WANE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY, WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH A LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO 40S.
FRIDAY: THE GULF OF AK LOW PIVOTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA, WITH
A STRONG 120KT JET CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY, SAVE FOR SOME RAIN AT THE CASCADE CREST AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WILL BE THE MORE NOTABLE
WEATHER FEATURE OF THE DAY, INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING TO 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. WINDS COULD BE
LOCALLY HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
CASCADES GAPS INTO THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER PALOUSE/L-C VALLEY.
THE NBM SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR
GREATER AT 20-40% NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS TO THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU AND EPHRATA AREA, AS WELL AS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25-30%, LOCALLY
LOWER. THIS WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
STARTS IN CONDUCIVE FUELS. IN A GENERAL SENSE, THIS COULD ALSO
MEAN ISSUES FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, CREATE CHOPPY WATERS AND
CAUSE MINOR TREE DAMAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S.
SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
WEST, WITH ONE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER RELOADING THE TROUGH HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO
30 MPH. SO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
FRIDAY. SUNDAY SHOWER/ISOLATED T-STORM CHANCES LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HEADING INTO LATER MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
BROADER SHOWER CHANCES COME TO THE REGION, WITH THE NEXT LOW.
AT THIS POINT, NONE OF THIS LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, BUT THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED T-STORM CHANCES WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS, FOR THE MOST PART, WILL BE IN THE 40S. YET THERE ARE SOME
30S IN THE FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. THE COLDEST
MORNING IS FORECAST TO BE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. THE COLDEST ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SHELTERED
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE VALLEYS. THERE IS EVEN SOME RISK ACROSS THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN IN THE MORE OUTLYING RURAL AREAS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIFT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST REACHING KEAT-KALW
19-20Z, KPUW-KGEG-KOMK 21-23Z, AND KMLP-KCQV 00-01Z. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, EACH SITE HAS 1-3 HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACTIVITY. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN
CORES. GREATEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING (50-60% CHANCE) WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH 20-30% CHANCE KGEG-KSFF-KCOE
AND 10-15% CHANCE FOR KPUW-KLWS. KMWH-KEAT COME WITH A 5-10%
CHANCE. BRIEF WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KLWS-KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE GIVEN THE LATER TIMING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND KEAT
FOLLOWING THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT KEAT
02-06Z. PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AND CLOUDS ERODE THIS EVENING,
WITH MORE WIND DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
20Z. UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES WILL SET UP AND
COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING. HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY FAVORING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND JUST SOUTH OF KLWS FOR THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHTNING. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN WA. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WIND GUSTS COULD BE
STRONGER AROUND KLWS-KPUW IF MORE COMPACT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORMS OVER NE OREGON AND TRACKS THROUGH THIS AREA
BETWEEN 23-01Z. MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA TO KLWS-KPUW WITH FUTURE
UPDATES BUT PROBABILISTICALLY, THESE AREAS COME WITH A LOWER
THREAT COMPARED TO KGEG-KCOE NORTHWARD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 49 73 47 71 45 63 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 51 70 47 69 46 61 / 40 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 47 68 43 68 44 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 53 76 49 77 51 68 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 75 43 72 37 64 / 40 10 0 0 0 60
SANDPOINT 49 69 46 68 44 59 / 30 10 0 0 0 30
KELLOGG 50 69 45 70 46 59 / 40 10 0 0 0 20
MOSES LAKE 48 78 46 74 41 68 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 53 76 52 71 48 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 49 78 49 73 43 66 / 20 0 0 0 10 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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