210
FXUS66 KOTX 050734
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1234 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY.
- BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
- COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, COOLER
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE GULF OF AK LOW PIVOTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A STRONG 120KT JET CUTTING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION,
STARTING NEAR THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND THEN TO IDAHO AND
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SLIP BY THE
NORTHERN CANADIAN BORDER TOO, BUT THE BETTER RISK STAYS NORTH OF
THE BORDER. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
WINDS WILL BE THE MORE NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE DAY,
INCREASING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING,
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SPEEDS OF
15-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE CASCADES GAPS INTO THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER
PALOUSE/L-C VALLEY. THE NBM STILL SHOWS SOME PROBABILITY OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AT 20-40%, BUT MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE GAPS AND WESTERN WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND
EPHRATA AREA, AS WELL AS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE. THUS I DID DROP THE RH VALUES OVER THE NBM, BY ABOUT
5-10 PERCENT. THIS MEANS RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. (THEY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER NEAR THE CASCADE
CREST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.) THE COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND LOW RH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY STARTS IN CONDUCIVE FUELS. CENTRAL WA WILL BE THE MOST
PRONE; THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL STARTS IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS THERE. IN A GENERAL SENSE, THIS WIND COULD ALSO MEAN ISSUES
FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, CREATE CHOPPY WATERS AND CAUSE MINOR
TREE DAMAGE, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST IN THE WESTERN
BASIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION,
WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. HOWEVER MODELS
TEND TO MISS SOME OF THESE EVENTS AND DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH SHOWERS.
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INSTABILITY (UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8C/KM AND CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG), I EXPANDED A SHOWER
RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN INTO EASTERN WA AND ID. THESE WILL
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE, BUT IT IS WORTH
THE MENTION BECAUSE I THINK A FEW WILL DEVELOP. EMBEDDED T-STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOO, BUT THAT RISK STILL REMAINS BEST IN THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
SO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID-40S, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST. THE COLDEST ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SHELTERED
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE VALLEYS. THERE IS EVEN SOME RISK ACROSS THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN IN THE MORE OUTLYING RURAL AREAS.
SUNDAY TO THURSDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEST, WITH ANOTHER LOW RELOADING IT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY THE SHOWER/ISOLATED T-STORM CHANCES LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, NORTH CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE LOWER
PANHANDLE. HEADING INTO LATER MONDAY TO THURSDAY SHOWER CHANCES
EXPAND OVER THE REGION WITH THAT NEXT LOW. AS A WHOLE, SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT FORECAST, BUT THERE WILL BE
EMBEDDED T-STORM CHANCES WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UPPER 30S
AND 40S. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FROST IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. PASSING
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY, WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR THE
CASCADE CREST. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SUBSIDE AFTER
02-03Z. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN 12-16Z FRIDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY 18Z
FRIDAY-03Z SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS OF 35-40KTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADES GAPS AND
KLWS. WINDS START TO WANE AFTER 03-04Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF WINDS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 70 45 63 40 65 42 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 68 46 61 41 62 42 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
PULLMAN 67 44 60 39 61 40 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
LEWISTON 76 52 68 47 69 46 / 0 0 10 0 10 0
COLVILLE 71 38 64 32 66 36 / 0 0 40 40 20 0
SANDPOINT 67 45 60 39 60 40 / 0 0 20 30 20 0
KELLOGG 68 46 59 41 59 41 / 0 0 20 20 20 0
MOSES LAKE 74 43 68 38 71 44 / 0 0 20 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 71 48 66 46 71 51 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
OMAK 73 43 64 39 71 44 / 0 0 60 10 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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