939
FXUS66 KOTX 060659
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1159 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY,
ALBEIT COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DAMPEN THE THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (40-70%
CASCADES/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, 10-20% BASIN)
- FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY'S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE NW COAST AND WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
AREAS SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MOIST 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (150 J/KG) AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE BASIN INTO E WA AND N ID (10- 20%
CHANCE).
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE INCLUDING
WIND GUSTS OF 25- 30 MPH. HOWEVER, COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50-60S WILL HELP DAMPEN THE FIRE THREAT.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 30S
(65-90+% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY'S. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
TAKE ACTION TO COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS/CROPS. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN
FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS (30% CHANCE) AND AN ISOLATED STORM
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NE WA AND THE N ID PANHANDLE.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP READY TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES
(30-80%) OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS
ENSEMBLE DATA THAT THE REGION REMAINS UNDER TROUGHING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO EITHER 1-REMAIN UNDER
TROUGHING OR 2-BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE AS
SOON AS THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDING TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEAT WHICH
REMAINS AT 15KTS AND WILL SLOWLY FALL OVER TO 10KTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WESTERLY BASED WINDS TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING TOMORROW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VARY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT THRU
THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING
OVER A GIVEN TAF SITE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 63 40 65 43 68 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 46 62 41 63 42 67 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
PULLMAN 44 60 39 62 41 66 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 51 68 47 69 47 73 / 0 20 0 10 0 0
COLVILLE 38 65 32 67 36 68 / 0 40 40 10 0 10
SANDPOINT 44 61 39 60 41 65 / 0 20 30 30 0 0
KELLOGG 46 60 41 59 40 68 / 0 20 20 20 0 0
MOSES LAKE 42 68 38 72 45 71 / 0 20 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 48 66 46 71 51 69 / 0 10 10 0 0 30
OMAK 43 66 38 72 44 70 / 0 60 10 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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