746
FXUS66 KOTX 061905
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1205 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY,
ALBEIT COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DAMPEN THE THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (40-70%
CASCADES/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, 10-20% BASIN)
- FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY'S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE NW COAST AND WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
AREAS SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MOIST 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (150 J/KG) AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE BASIN INTO E WA AND N ID (10- 20%
CHANCE).
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE INCLUDING
WIND GUSTS OF 25- 30 MPH. HOWEVER, COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50-60S WILL HELP DAMPEN THE FIRE THREAT.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 30S
(65-90+% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY'S. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
TAKE ACTION TO COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS/CROPS. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN
FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS (30% CHANCE) AND AN ISOLATED STORM
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NE WA AND THE N ID PANHANDLE.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP READY TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES
(30-80%) OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS
ENSEMBLE DATA THAT THE REGION REMAINS UNDER TROUGHING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO EITHER 1-REMAIN UNDER
TROUGHING OR 2-BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN OFFSHORE RIDGE AS
SOON AS THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDING TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS INTO KEAT,
ACROSS THE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN (KEPH/KMWH), INTO THE
SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREAS (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE), AND PALOUSE TO
LEWISTON/CLARKSTON VALLEY (KPUW/KLWS). CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE TODAY
WITH DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (15-25 PERCENT CHANCE), AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE COLUMBIA BASIN. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE BETWEEN 03-06Z
THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING OVER A GIVEN TAF SITE. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 63 40 65 43 68 45 / 20 20 0 0 0 50
COEUR D'ALENE 62 41 63 42 67 47 / 20 20 10 0 0 50
PULLMAN 60 39 62 41 66 44 / 10 10 0 0 0 60
LEWISTON 68 47 69 47 73 50 / 20 0 10 0 0 60
COLVILLE 65 32 67 36 68 40 / 40 40 10 0 10 50
SANDPOINT 61 39 60 41 65 45 / 20 30 30 0 0 50
KELLOGG 60 41 59 40 68 47 / 20 20 20 0 0 50
MOSES LAKE 68 38 72 45 71 44 / 20 10 0 0 0 30
WENATCHEE 66 46 71 51 69 51 / 10 10 0 0 30 50
OMAK 66 38 72 44 70 46 / 60 10 0 0 10 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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