049
FXUS66 KOTX 210943
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
243 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DOWN THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL WA.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL LAST INTO MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WA. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH USHERS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY: BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES ONSHORE, PLACING THE REGION IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
RIDGE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE NBM CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ISN'T
OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH NEARLY
100% OF MODEL CLUSTERS NOW DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, BUT THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SHIFT TO A TROUGHING PATTERN OF SOME SORT.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY WARM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. HEADING
INTO FRIDAY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH'S ARRIVAL. BY SATURDAY, MOST MODELS SHOW A NEARLY 20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY! THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. GUSTY
WINDS ARE INEVITABLE WITH SUCH A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN, SO EXPECT A
WINDY DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFO
IN THE COMING DAYS! /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOMK,
KEAT, AND KMWH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 07-09Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 83 54 84 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 80 52 82 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 78 49 81 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 86 56 89 56 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 82 44 85 49 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 79 51 80 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 77 52 80 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 87 58 89 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 86 61 89 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 85 56 88 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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