366
FXUS66 KOTX 220012
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
512 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DOWN THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL WA.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL LAST INTO MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WA. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT: BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH MANY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OBSERVATIONS OF VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. QUITE A BIT OF FAIR-WEATHER TERRAIN DRIVEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
THE LAST 24-HOURS, MAINTAINING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEATRISK VALUES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW TO MID 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AFTER A LONGER
PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS THE LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE CONTINUED AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE
SUITE OF MODELS REMAINS ABOVE 80% FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE PACNW, THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND PLACEMENT OF HOW FAR SOUTH IT DROPS, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEATHER OUTCOME FOR THE
NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS ARRIVING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE, AS WELL AS INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME ARE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CASCADES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS, AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE.
THESE AREAS CARRY A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FRIDAY,
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEK AHEAD, WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA OF TIMING, LOCATION, AND
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT. /DEWEY
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: CONDITIONS AT REGIONAL AIR FIELDS WILL CONTINUE AT
VFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 53 84 52 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 53 82 53 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 49 81 50 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 56 89 56 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 48 85 48 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 50 80 52 83 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 51 80 51 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 60 89 56 91 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 89 63 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 56 88 57 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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