894
FXUS66 KOTX 221720
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1020 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OUR WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S.
- LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WA MONDAY
MORNING.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL LAST INTO MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE REGION. THE PATTERN SHIFTS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM DELIVERS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK,
KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. MOST OF THE REGION WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MODERATE HEATRISK CATEGORY BY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. MODERATE HEATRISK AFFECTS
THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND UPPER LEVELS COOL AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING TROUGH, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BRING ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERESTORMS AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM SHOW A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND ID
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE STILL IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. CONSENSUS IS GROWING AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH WITH MOST MODEL
CLUSTERS SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL TRACK, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SHIFT TO
A TROUGHING PATTERN OF SOME SORT ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY STAY WARM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, SPREAD
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE
YESTERDAY, INDICATING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH'S ARRIVAL AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
GUSTY WINDS ARE INEVITABLE WITH SUCH A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN, SO
EXPECT A WINDY DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
INFO IN THE COMING DAYS! /FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: CONDITIONS AT REGIONAL AIR FIELDS WILL CONTINUE AT
VFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND CENTRAL WA INCLUDING KOMK
AND KMWH WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 84 52 85 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 82 53 85 56 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 82 50 84 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 89 56 90 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 84 49 87 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 80 54 83 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 80 51 83 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 89 56 91 57 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 88 64 89 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 87 58 90 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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