575
FXUS66 KOTX 231752
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1052 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE LATE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN SHIFTS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM DELIVERS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE HOVERING AROUND 10 PERCENT. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THESE CHANCES INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY, THE AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE.
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES EVAPORATING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE GROUND. THUS, ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS OF DRY
FUELS MAY RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. ON THURSDAY, FLOW SHIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE INITIAL FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING
A 70-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON, THE CASCADE CREST, AND THE ID PANHANDLE WITH A
20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWER CHANCES, THERE WILL BE A 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
WITH ANY DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES COMES BREEZY WINDS, AND
THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AN EXCEPTION. EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF BREEZY WINDS RAMPING UP ON WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECASTS HAS WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. /FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KTS) WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23Z-03Z
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JW
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 55 89 57 85 53 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 85 57 88 59 84 55 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
PULLMAN 84 52 86 55 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
LEWISTON 91 60 93 62 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
COLVILLE 88 53 90 54 86 51 / 0 0 0 20 10 10
SANDPOINT 84 60 87 60 83 56 / 0 0 0 20 10 10
KELLOGG 84 55 86 56 82 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
MOSES LAKE 91 57 94 59 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
WENATCHEE 90 64 91 65 86 60 / 0 0 10 20 0 30
OMAK 91 61 93 58 89 56 / 0 0 10 20 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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