794
FXUS66 KOTX 240847
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
147 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
- WINDY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARM AND WINDY
THURSDAY LEADING TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY: IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE INLAND
NW WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S, AROUND 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. ONE
SHORTWAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
DELIVERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL TRACK THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL BE MORE
PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CASCADES AND OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR CELLS TO
DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A
BIT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL WA VS PREVIOUS
RUNS AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HREF MEMBERS. SURFACED CAPE
RANGES FROM 300-700 J/KG WITH A RIBBON OF 1000 K/KG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE CASCADES. CONSEQUENTLY, WE ANTICIPATE A FEW
STRONGER, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF
0.1-0.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH A 10-15% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50". THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NEAR SENSITIVE BURN
SCARS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN
WARM AND DRY SO ANY RAIN COOLED AIR WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-45 MPH. THIS IS CAPTURED IN THE
OUTPUT FROM THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL OUTFLOW WINDS OF
THIS NATURE. AS THESE OUTFLOW WINDS EXPAND INTO THE LOWLANDS OF
CENTRAL WA, THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CREATE NEW CELLS
AROUND WENATCHEE, MOSES LAKE, COULEE CITY, AND DAVENPORT. THE
CAPE IN THESE AREAS DOES NOT AS ROBUST BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
WINDS. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
BE ISOLATED. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EAST IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO
NORTHEASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGERING OVER NORTH IDAHO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN WA AND THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE CARRY THE LOWEST
RISK (5-10%) FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE THE START OF THE PATTERN CHANGE
WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY ON FIRE WEATHER AS BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A INCOMING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIP INTO THE 14-23% RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH THOUGH WINDS TO LOOK VERY
PERSISTENT WITH A WELL MIXED PROFILE TO 9-10K FT AGL AND STEADY
15-20KTS WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW OR ONGOING
FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY WITHIN OUR DRY FUELS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES ONSHORE BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN,
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. NEARLY THE
ENTIRE INLAND NW HAS A 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF
RAIN. WHEN VIEWING THE CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN (0.10" OR
MORE), PROBABILITIES DROP TOWARD 20% OR LESS FOR ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BUT THE CASCADES, OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS,
NORTHEASTERN WA, AND NORTH IDAHO INCREASE TO 50-80%. AS THE LOW
SETTLES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY-SUNDAY, SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO RETREAT INTO THE MOUNTAIN DISTRICTS AND RISING TERRAIN OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND THE PALOUSE AND SPOKANE AREA.
NONETHELESS, FIRE INDICES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 30-50%. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, COLUMBIA
BASIN, AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND PALOUSE.
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST WENATCHEE WINDS WILL INCREASE
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE HEAT TO
REMAIN SUBDUED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DEGREE OF WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE DETAILS ARE STILL BEING SORTED
OUT IN THE MODELS TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING FROM THE GULF OF AK BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THIS
WILL COME WITH PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL. /SB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE WA/ID BORDER THIS
EVENING WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH 20-40% FOR CELLS
TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE CELLS TRAVEL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL WA. GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN
PROXIMITY OF KEAT, KMWH, KOMK, AND KCQV 21-03Z. THESE SITES COME
WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR NEW CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW
WINDS. SOME HI-RES MODELS HINT AT LESSER IMPACTS AT KGEG-KSFF
03-06Z BUT STILL SOME IMPACTS FROM DECAYING OUTFLOW WINDS AND
A SMALL THREAT (~15%) FOR SHOWERS. A BULK OF THE SHOWER AND
T-STORM THREAT WILL RETREAT INTO NORTH IDAHO 6-12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WA AND HOW OUTFLOW WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE BASIN. SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOWING BRIEF GUSTS OF 35KTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND HIGH-BASED CELLS DEVELOPING BETWEEN KEAT-KGEG.
/SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 90 57 86 53 68 48 / 0 20 10 10 80 80
COEUR D'ALENE 89 59 85 55 66 49 / 0 20 10 10 90 80
PULLMAN 86 54 82 50 66 45 / 0 0 10 10 80 50
LEWISTON 94 62 91 60 73 53 / 0 0 10 20 90 60
COLVILLE 90 54 87 50 69 42 / 10 20 20 20 80 90
SANDPOINT 87 56 84 52 64 46 / 0 20 20 10 90 90
KELLOGG 86 57 82 54 64 48 / 0 20 10 10 90 80
MOSES LAKE 95 60 89 55 76 48 / 0 20 0 10 30 40
WENATCHEE 92 65 86 60 73 54 / 20 20 0 20 50 30
OMAK 94 60 89 58 74 49 / 20 20 10 10 60 80
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-
FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE
703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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