406
FXUS66 KOTX 250601
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1101 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE IN THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
- WINDY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WARM AND WINDY THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BIGGER CHANGES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY: A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 300-600 J/KG THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER INITIALLY WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SEVERAL CAM'S
MODELS SHOWING 30-40 MPH GUSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH STORMS. YET WITH DRY FUELS NEW FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STRIKES THAT OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN CORES. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION MANIFEST INTO AN
AREA OF ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS, ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM AND BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY,
WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WENATCHEE AREA, OKANOGAN VALLEY, COLUMBIA BASIN, WEST PLAINS,
AND PALOUSE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM
PDT FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION PROVIDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
WINDS, SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GENERAL
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES OF THE LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND ON FRIDAY, THEN OVER SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON SATURDAY, SOUTHERN IDAHO SUNDAY, AND THEN
START TO PULL AWAY ON MONDAY. DESPITE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW TRACK, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
PRECISE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ID PANHANDLE AND EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON
ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS DUE TO HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND/OR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW TRACK AS A BAND OF WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE DEVELOPS ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK.
BELOW ARE THE LATEST NBM LOW END (10TH PERCENTILE), MEAN
(MODEL AVERAGE), AND HIGH END (90TH PERCENTILE) AMOUNTS FOR
SELECTED CITIES FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM SUNDAY
CITY LOW END MODEL AVERAGE HIGH END
WENATCHEE 0.00 0.09 0.29
OMAK 0.03 0.33 0.92
MOSES LAKE 0.00 0.02 0.14
COLVILLE 0.19 0.60 1.08
SPOKANE 0.03 0.25 0.57
LEWISTON 0.03 0.19 0.50
SANDPOINT 0.15 0.62 1.23
KELLOGG 0.10 0.42 0.89
BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO MONTANA, THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. SAME AS ABOVE, HERE ARE THE 10TH, MEAN, AND 90TH
PERCENTILE PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE NBM FROM 5 AM SUNDAY
TO 5 AM TUESDAY
CITY LOW END MODEL AVERAGE HIGH END
WENATCHEE 0.00 0.04 0.08
OMAK 0.00 0.10 0.40
MOSES LAKE 0.00 0.04 0.13
COLVILLE 0.00 0.32 0.90
SPOKANE 0.00 0.22 0.83
LEWISTON 0.00 0.18 0.68
SANDPOINT 0.00 0.60 1.48
KELLOGG 0.01 0.63 1.63
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. YET LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALIVE. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS
WELL THE MT/ID BORDER BETWEEN 06-09Z. THIS WILL BE THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON LARGELY
BETWEEN 18-22Z. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 20-23KTS BETWEEN 19-03Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE CLOSER TO 10KTS
OR LESS AFTER 03Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MODERATE TO HIGH FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 86 53 69 48 67 / 20 10 30 60 80 40
COEUR D'ALENE 59 84 55 67 49 65 / 20 10 30 70 80 50
PULLMAN 54 82 50 67 45 64 / 0 10 40 60 50 20
LEWISTON 62 90 60 74 53 71 / 0 10 40 70 70 30
COLVILLE 53 86 50 70 43 69 / 20 20 20 70 90 80
SANDPOINT 56 83 52 64 47 63 / 20 20 30 80 90 70
KELLOGG 56 82 54 64 48 62 / 20 10 40 70 70 70
MOSES LAKE 60 88 54 76 48 72 / 20 0 10 20 30 10
WENATCHEE 64 85 59 74 54 71 / 20 0 20 50 20 10
OMAK 59 89 58 75 50 73 / 20 10 20 60 80 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -
SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE
709)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE
706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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