170
FXUS66 KOTX 251129
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
429 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND WINDY THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. BIGGER CHANGES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY: A DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL BEGIN ITS TREK
SOUTHWARD TODAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BE SLUNG INLAND RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALBERTA BUT MORE IMPORTANT WILL BE COOLER MARINE AIR PILING INTO
WESTERN WA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INLAND NW UPWARDS OF 7-10 MILLIBARS DELIVERING
PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
THE LAYER OF WINDS WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB FURTHER SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF CONSISTENT BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. ACCOMPANYING GUSTS WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY ADDING ANOTHER 5 TO 8 MPH OR GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 MPH. THE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO
WILL NOT COOL MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY BOTTOMING
OUT BETWEEN 12-20%. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHICH PROMPTED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR TODAY. WOULD
NOT CLASSIFY THIS AS A HIGH END RED FLAG WARNING BUT ANY NEW
STARTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY, A TREND WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH SEVERAL FIRES OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO
GIVEN THE STATUS OF OUR FUELS.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER AS WELL AS THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND WINDOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED COMING BETWEEN
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LOW COMES BARRELING
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME PERIODS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
TO THE BEST THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE LEADING MOISTURE PLUME AND
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY THEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EVENT FOR SUNDAY. THE MOUNTAIN DISTRICTS
CARRY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINS (MORE THAN A
TENTH - 80-90%) AND ANYWHERE FROM 50-80% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER
INCH OR MORE. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP OFF DRASTICALLY THE
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU TRAVEL INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN TOWARD
THE TRI-CITIES, MOSES LAKE, VANTAGE, AND WENATCHEE. THIS LEADS
TO A SHARP GRADIENT FOR WILBUR, DAVENPORT, SPOKANE, AND PULLMAN.
THE RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WITHIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DEFORMATION BAND.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COULD PROVE
TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES,
COLUMBIA BASIN, AND SNAKE RIVER IF THESE AREAS DO RECEIVE THE
BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE
WITH GUST POTENTIAL INCREASING SLOWLY EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AS THE MEAN LOW
CENTER DRIFTS EAST AND PULLS IN STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
GOOD NEWS WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES WHICH WILL BE NEAR 30% AROUND VANTAGE AND WENATCHEE AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AROUND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
MONDAY- THURSDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DROPPING IN. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD
SOME DEGREE OF WARMING, LIKELY SLOW, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS ROBUST BUT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LOOKS FAVORABLE GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT. THERE
IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z-12Z
FRIDAY FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 19Z THURSDAY TO 03Z FRIDAY FOR K63S, KSZT, AND K65S WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION
IN FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 53 70 49 67 46 / 10 30 70 60 30 20
COEUR D'ALENE 85 55 67 50 65 47 / 10 40 80 70 40 30
PULLMAN 83 50 68 46 64 43 / 10 50 70 40 20 10
LEWISTON 91 59 75 55 71 51 / 10 50 70 70 20 10
COLVILLE 87 50 70 44 68 42 / 20 30 70 90 80 50
SANDPOINT 84 52 64 47 63 45 / 20 20 80 80 60 30
KELLOGG 83 53 65 49 62 46 / 10 50 80 70 60 30
MOSES LAKE 88 55 77 50 72 47 / 0 10 20 20 20 10
WENATCHEE 85 60 74 55 71 54 / 0 20 50 10 10 10
OMAK 89 58 76 51 72 49 / 10 10 40 80 50 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -
PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE
RIVER (ZONE 709)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE
PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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