014
FXUS66 KOTX 051732
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1032 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
HEATRISK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PUT
MOST OF THE REGION IN THE MODERATE HEATRISK CATEGORY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SYNOPSIS
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRIPLE
DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF MODERATE HEATRISK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY AND PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY: DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING TROUGH LEAVES A DRY AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, MAINTAINING LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A COUPLE OF DISTINCT SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRST, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE CLIMBING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S, PLACING MOST OF THE REGION IN
THE MODERATE HEATRISK CATEGORY. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY
IMPACTS INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, PARTICULARLY
THOSE LACKING ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEP COLUMBIA
BASIN AND LEWISTON- CLARKSTON VALLEY TO HIT THE 100-DEGREE MARK.
PROBABILITIES OF HITTING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
LEWISTON - 40% CHANCE
MATTAWA - 35% CHANCE
MOSES LAKE - 25% CHANCE
THE SECOND SYNOPTIC FEATURE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SPINNING UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
SENDING A ROBUST COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INLAND NORTHWEST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING, THE CROSS-CASCADE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, BRINGING GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE CASCADE GAPS AND UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. AS THE FRONT PASSES ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THUS, WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS,
SHOWING A 40% TO 70% CHANCE OF RH DROPPING BELOW 20% DOWN THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A 40% TO 80% CHANCE OF
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 15 MPH ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR, THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE DRAMATIC. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE. AROUND 60 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
FAVOR OF BRINGING A TROUGH IN FROM THE PACIFIC, WHILE THE OTHER 40
PERCENT AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SIGNAL ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAT. /FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON COULD CREATE LOCALIZED
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SMOKE FROM REGION WILDFIRES LOWERING VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS AT
TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 85 52 89 54 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 83 53 88 57 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 81 49 85 52 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 90 57 91 59 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
COLVILLE 84 48 90 52 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 82 52 88 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 81 52 87 56 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 89 55 93 57 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 89 62 93 65 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 87 56 93 60 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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