525
FXUS66 KOTX 052012
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
112 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
HEATRISK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SYNOPSIS
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRIPLE
DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF MODERATE HEATRISK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY AND PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SLIDES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY MID-WEEK. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
PLACES THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SUBTLE
RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND MUCH WARMER WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK, WHICH IS
A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY FOLKS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW TO MOVE
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY, WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT
THE IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR - ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRENGTHENING CROSS-CASCADE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOLLOWING A HOT AND DRY DAY ON MONDAY, HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY WILL EFFECTIVE DRY OUT THE
FINER FUELS. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE CENTRAL WASHINGTON A 40-
70% CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20% COMBINED WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRONGEST WIND/LOWEST RH OVERLAP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CASCADES AROUND WENATCHEE DUE TO A STRONG
COUNTER UPSLOPE WIND INFLUENCE TUESDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR CENTRAL WA.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPAND EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA, INCREASING
THE YKM-YQL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO +8-12MB. DESPITE SOME COOLING AND A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT (COMPARED TO
SATURDAY'S FRONT) ON WEDNESDAY, NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-60% CHANCE
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20% COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON. AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT, BUT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS (QPF
GREATER THAN 0.10 INCHES) IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS WEEK WILL ADVECT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA
INTO EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO, MODELS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE BLUES AND CAMAS PRAIRIE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CARRIES A LOW CONFIDENCE WITH NBM 6-HOUR
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RANGING FROM 15-20% ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER
BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER GULF OF
ALASKA LOW SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S, BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF BREEZY
AND DRY WINDS TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE
WILL BE THE NEXT PERIODS TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO AMPLIFY
NORTHWARD. AROUND 60% OF ENSEMBLES SHOW THE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE
INLAND NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS 60%, MOST ENSEMBLES GENERALLY
KEEP THE INW UNDER A SUBTLE INFLUENCE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 80S. THE OTHER 40% OF ENSEMBLES HAVE BROAD TROUGHINESS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE
SPREAD IS BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FOR THE WEEKEND, FURTHER
HIGHLIGHTING THIS UNCERTAINTY. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON COULD CREATE LOCALIZED
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SMOKE FROM REGION WILDFIRES LOWERING VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS AT
TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 89 54 94 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 53 88 57 92 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
PULLMAN 49 85 52 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
LEWISTON 57 91 59 98 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 30 0
COLVILLE 48 90 52 93 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 52 88 56 91 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
KELLOGG 52 87 56 90 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 55 93 57 97 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 93 65 95 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 56 93 60 96 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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