441
FXUS66 KOTX 060701
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1201 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
HEATRISK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SYNOPSIS
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRIPLE
DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF MODERATE HEATRISK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EACH
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY AND PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE HEATRISK RETURNING ACROSS THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, AND COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WARM
TUESDAY, REACHING THE LOW TO HIGH 90S, INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF
MODERATE HEATRISK TO MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. ALL THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES SHOULD MAKE SURE TO KEEP
ADEQUATELY COOL AND HYDRATED.
ON MONDAY EVENING, A STRONG LOW OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST, AND BY TUESDAY WILL MOVE
INLAND AND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY WEDNESDAY, THIS LOW WILL
USHER A STRONG AND DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PAIRED WITH STRONG WINDS FROM THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEW AND ONGOING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF EASILY ESCAPING
CONTROL. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY, WINDS IN THE
CASCADE GAPS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH. THUS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, CASCADE FOOTHILLS,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN ON TUESDAY FROM 10AM
THROUGH 10PM.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 20-30MPH
EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADE GAPS.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SEA AND COE.
THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING OBJECTS, ALONGSIDE
CHALLENGING DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE VERY LIKELY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CLUSTERS AND LONG-TERM MODELS SHOW
DISAGREEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. HALF OF
THE CLUSTERS SHOW LOWER HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE AREA, WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. THE OTHER HALF
OF CLUSTERS SHOW HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WOULD
FAVOR TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COULD CREATE LOCALIZED CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SMOKE FROM LOCAL WILDFIRES LOWERING VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS AT
TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 89 54 94 61 85 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 88 57 92 61 84 55 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
PULLMAN 84 52 90 56 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 91 59 98 64 89 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
COLVILLE 90 52 93 58 86 51 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 88 56 92 60 83 54 / 0 0 0 20 10 0
KELLOGG 87 56 90 59 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
MOSES LAKE 93 57 97 60 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 93 66 96 66 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 93 61 96 63 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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