562
FXUS66 KOTX 071812
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1112 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEATRISK TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES (10-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE HEATRISK. THERE WILL BE
PASSING CLOUDS WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TUESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND EXPAND ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGING CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S, WITH
SOME ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER
COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY.
MODERATE HEATRISK IMPACTS ALL THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT WHO DO NOT
HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION, SO MAKE SURE TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, A STRONG LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND, AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN A STRONG AND DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS GENERATED FROM THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. NEW AND ONGOING
FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF EASILY ESCAPING CONTROL. AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY, WINDS IN THE CASCADE GAPS WILL INCREASE
TO 25-30 MPH. THUS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY, CASCADE FOOTHILLS, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN ON FROM EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 20-
30MPH EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADE
GAPS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODELS SHOW AN 8-10MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SEA AND COE. THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD RESULT
IN BLOWING OBJECTS, ALONGSIDE CHALLENGING DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON FROM 11 AM TO
10 PM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL AREAS INCLUDED IN WEDNESDAY'S RED FLAG
WARNING ARE THE SPOKANE AREA, COLVILLE RESERVATION, AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS AREA.
A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH, RESULTING IN A SMALL BUT
IMPACTFUL CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON. A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE WITH STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
RESULTED IN A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HREF AND WRF
SHOWING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THE AIR MASS BEING VERY DRY, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING, THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO WHEN COMBINED
WITH ALREADY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE MONITORED EXTREMELY CLOSELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADE GAPS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, ROUGHLY 50% OF CLUSTERS SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THE OTHER 50% OF CLUSTERS SHOW THE TROUGH STAYING JUST
OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT WINDS AS INTENSELY. CONDITONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH
80S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CLUSTERS THEN BEGIN FAVORING A BROAD RIDGE
SETTING UP AND STRENGTHENING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH LONG-TERM MODELS PROJECTING HIGHS TO RETURN TO
THE 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALONGSIDE CLUSTERS SHOWING GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THIS RIDGE, THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
SHOWS A 60-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE CPC'S PROBABILISTIC 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK HAZARDS PAGE SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR EXTREME HEAT IN
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 22Z FOR CENTRAL
WA INCLUDING KEAT, KMWH, AND KOMK WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS. WINDS
WILL LATER SHIFT WEST FOR KEAT AROUND 00-02Z AND WILL RAMP UP
FURTHER WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS OVERNIGHT. KPUW WILL ALSO HAVE
INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND A 5% CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHTNING IMPACTING TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 94 61 88 56 84 55 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 92 62 87 56 83 56 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 90 57 83 51 81 50 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 98 64 92 59 90 59 / 0 20 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 93 57 89 52 86 52 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 91 59 87 56 83 55 / 0 10 20 0 0 0
KELLOGG 90 59 84 55 80 54 / 0 10 20 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 97 60 90 53 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 95 66 86 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 96 63 91 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -
PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE
709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705).
ID...NONE.
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