985
FXUS66 KOTX 080551
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1051 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: SLIGHT (10 TO 20 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR
HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WA AND
NORTH ID TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING AND EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN WA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BRING A LOW (10 TO 20
PERCENT) CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH POOR RECOVERIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND OKANOGAN VALLEY, AND WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY
EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONSEQUENTLY, RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE MOSES LAKE
AND WENATCHEE AREAS NORTHWARD UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CRAWL INLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING AND A SHIFT INTO
ZONAL FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL WA TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID WEDNESDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THESE ZONES WHERE
FUELS HAVE BEEN DECLARED DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL SPREAD
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE, SPOKANE AREA, NORTHEAST WA,
AND NORTH ID. THE WINDIEST SPOTS NEAR CASCADE GAPS AND OVER
EXPOSED AREAS OF THE BASIN WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. WHILE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG, THESE WINDS WILL MEET CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM OREGON WILL
CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING LOW (BUT NONZERO) CHANCES
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. A FEW HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST, OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA, AND OVER
NORTH ID LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP
GENERATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO FALL THROUGH A LARGE
LAYER OF DRY AIR BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS, MOST IF NOT
ALL PRECIP WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THERE BEING ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER STORMS,
BUT GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
POSE A FIRE HAZARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST CARRIES A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL BACK TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT OF NORMAL, KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS LOW DESPITE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION, WHERE A DEEP MARINE LAYER SPILLING OVER FROM
THE WEST SIDE WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGHER (25 TO 35 PERCENT).
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST THURSDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. WHILE WINDS SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BY SATURDAY, THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES
A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20
MPH ACROSS CENTRAL WA. CHANCES CLIMB AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT DOWN
THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS HAVE CURRENTLY RELAXED AT
EVERY TAF SITE BUT EAT, WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE BEING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING, INCREASING WINDS AROUND 15-18Z FOR MANY OF THE
TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS WILL BE 20-25KTS, AND EAT HAS THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING 25-30KT WIND GUSTS. ASIDE FROM EAT AND MWH
WHICH WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH 06Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL RELAX
AROUND 01-03Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SPRINKLES (10-15%) AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS (5%) BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WITH THIS FRONT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE TAF SITES, VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 62 88 56 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 62 87 57 84 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 57 83 51 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 64 92 60 90 59 93 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 57 89 53 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 61 87 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 59 84 56 81 54 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 60 91 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 87 60 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 62 92 55 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -
PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE
709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR OKANOGAN
VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES
(ZONE 705).
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page