142
FXUS66 KOTX 080704
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1204 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: SLIGHT (5 TO 10 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR
HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WA AND
NORTH ID EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN WA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A LOW (5 TO 10 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY: A STRONG LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
USHER IN A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON,
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS 35
TO 45 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADE GAPS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY. CURRENT MODELS SHOW
AN 8 TO 10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SEA AND COE. THESE HIGHER
WIND GUSTS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING OBJECTS ALONGSIDE CHALLENGING
DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM TONIGHT. AREAS INCLUDED IN THE RED
FLAG WARNING ARE THE THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, CASCADE FOOTHILLS,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE AREA, COLVILLE
RESERVATION, AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON FOOTHILLS AREA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH
ALONGSIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A SMALL (5 TO 10 PERCENT
CHANCE) BUT IMPACTFUL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
LATER THIS MORNING. A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE WITH STEEP LOWER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED V SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT A LOW
CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO WHEN COMBINED WITH ALREADY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY, AS ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL POSE A FIRE HAZARD. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL BE MONITORED
EXTREMELY CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, ROUGHLY 50%
OF CLUSTERS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE OTHER 50% OF CLUSTERS SHOW THE
TROUGH STAYING JUST OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT WINDS AS
INTENSELY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CLUSTERS THEN BEGIN FAVORING A BROAD
RIDGE SETTING UP AND STRENGTHENING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH LONG-TERM MODELS PROJECTING HIGHS TO RETURN
TO THE 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALONGSIDE CLUSTERS SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS RIDGE, THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK SHOWS A 60-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE CPC'S PROBABILISTIC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAZARDS PAGE SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR EXTREME
HEAT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS HAVE CURRENTLY RELAXED AT
EVERY TAF SITE BUT EAT, WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE BEING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING, INCREASING WINDS AROUND 15-18Z FOR MANY OF THE
TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS WILL BE 20-25KTS, AND EAT HAS THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING 25-30KT WIND GUSTS. ASIDE FROM EAT AND MWH
WHICH WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH 06Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL RELAX
AROUND 01-03Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SPRINKLES (10-15%) AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS (5%) BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WITH THIS FRONT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE TAF SITES, VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 89 57 85 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 87 57 84 56 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 84 51 81 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 93 60 90 59 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 90 53 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 87 56 84 55 85 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 84 56 81 54 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 91 54 90 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 87 61 88 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 92 57 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-
FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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