178
FXUS66 KOTX 082042
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
142 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. THIS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE
INLAND NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS, THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, SITUATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA. DIURNAL MARINE PUSHES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
WILL TIGHTEN THE CROSS- CASCADE PRESSURE GRADIENT DAILY, DRIVING
ENHANCED EVENING WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS. AS A RESULT,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS OF THE
CASCADES, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY WINDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
CLOSED LOW MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER
THE SUBTLE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE BC COAST LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD,
WITH WINDS INCREASING ALOFT, AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE (60-90% PROBABILITY) FOR SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING
15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20% FOCUSED IN THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE PACIFIC AND HOW FAR NORTH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. IF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT, THIS WILL STUNT
AMPLIFICATION INTO THE INW, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SIMILAR
TO THE WEEKEND AND A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK. IF
THE PACIFIC SYSTEMS ARE DELAYED UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME, THIS WOULD ALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
THE INW, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY AND A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-WEEK. DURING THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME, THERE IS A 7 TO 11 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NBM,
HIGHLIGHTING THIS UNCERTAINTY. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL
BRING DRY AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDIEST LOCATION WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES, PARTICULARLY AT KEAT WHERE GUSTS 28 TO 32 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AT KEAT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AT KMWH
WEAKENING AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL RELAX ACROSS OTHER TAF SITES
AROUND 01-03Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 86 57 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 57 84 57 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 51 82 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 60 91 59 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 53 87 54 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 56 84 55 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 56 82 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 55 90 56 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 88 62 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 58 91 59 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -
SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
(ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW
VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE
PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
ID...NONE.
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