947
FXUS66 KOTX 092107
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
207 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS. A
BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE MAIN CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
FIRE WEATHER DRIVEN AS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL SEE STRENGTHENING
500 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON HIGH PRESSURE
DEEPENS. EACH AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DRY AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERNING DAY FOR FIRE WILL BE SATURDAY AS
A WEAK WAVE PIVOTS NORTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST OR TO SOUTHERN BC IN THE
MORNING, LEAVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA VULNERABLE TO BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SOUTH WINDS AS THE UPVALLEY DIURNAL WIND WILL
ASSIST. WITH THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE COLD
FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION, SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE DESCENT WILL
LEAD TO FAIRLY RAPID DRYING. THIS COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY DRYING
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY
NEW OR ONGOING FIRES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (10-15% CHANCE) OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WHICH CARRIES
LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON RIDGE STICKS AROUND THE REGION. THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR DRY LIGHTNING EVENTS
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASED PWATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND ID PANHANDLE
WHERE ENSEMBLES HAVE PWATS AROUND 125-175% OF NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. /DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 90 59 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 57 89 59 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 52 87 54 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 60 96 62 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 89 56 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 56 88 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 88 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 20 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 92 57 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 64 90 62 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 92 58 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN
VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706).
ID...NONE.
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