665
FXUS66 KOTX 092346
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
446 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS. A
BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE MAIN CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE FIRE WEATHER DRIVEN AS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL SEE
STRENGTHENING 500 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONSOON HIGH PRESSURE DEEPENS. EACH AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DRY AND
BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERNING DAY
FOR FIRE WILL BE SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE PIVOTS NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHWEST OR TO SOUTHERN BC IN THE MORNING, LEAVING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WA VULNERABLE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SOUTH WINDS AS
THE UPVALLEY DIURNAL WIND WILL ASSIST. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE
REGION, SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE DESCENT WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY RAPID
DRYING. THIS COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY DRYING CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY NEW OR
ONGOING FIRES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (10-15% CHANCE) OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE
WHICH CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON RIDGE STICKS AROUND THE
REGION. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR DRY
LIGHTNING EVENTS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASED PWATS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND ID PANHANDLE WHERE ENSEMBLES HAVE PWATS AROUND
125-175% OF NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER. /DB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THOUGH WILDFIRES MAY LOCALLY INHIBIT VISIBILITIES.
BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 90 59 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 57 89 59 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 52 87 54 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 60 96 62 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 89 56 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 56 88 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 88 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 20 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 92 57 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 64 90 62 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 92 58 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN
VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706).
ID...NONE.
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