944
FXUS66 KOTX 101159
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
459 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG ~599DM RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY PIVOTS AND SLIDES FROM COASTAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO ALBERTA. THIS WILL PLACE A STRENGTHENING 500MB JET
STREAK ACROSS WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN B.C. OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS PATTERN
WILL BE THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, WITH A
PARTICULAR FOCUS ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASED RAPID DRYING FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT DRY COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON, WITH ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MOST ELSEWHERE. THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WILL BE QUITE
SUSCEPTIBLE IN THIS REGIME, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CHANNEL INTO THE VALLEY AND BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL UPVALLEY
EFFECTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO RAPID SPREAD BEHAVIOR
WITH ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES. OTHERWISE, THERE REMAINS A
LOW (10-15%) CHANCE FOR A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE ID
PANHANDLE AND SE WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FRONT'S WARM
SECTOR, WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN PWAT ANOMALIES NOTED IN THIS
REGION. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM HERE
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER, WITH 12HR PROBABILITIES OF
LIGHTNING FROM THE NBM AROUND 5%.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: STRONG MONSOONAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE PACIFIC. MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, THOUGH EC ENSEMBLE
INDICATES PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMBING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES TO
AROUND 125% TO 175% ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WA AND ID MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PROMOTE INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALSO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH (MID TO UPPER 20S C) SO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SURFACE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH CLOUD
COVER COULD MODERATE THE OVERALL DIURNAL RANGE.
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PERSIST. WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 91 59 87 59 85 55 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 90 60 86 61 84 58 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 87 54 84 54 82 52 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 96 62 94 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 90 56 86 56 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 89 58 86 58 83 55 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 88 58 85 58 82 57 / 0 20 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 92 58 89 58 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 91 63 87 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 92 60 89 59 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN
VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706).
ID...NONE.
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