200
FXUS66 KOTX 102119
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
219 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL US WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER IN WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND A WEAK
LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST ALBERTA PROVIDING A CROSS CASCADES PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ASTORIA TO LETHBRIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PEAK
AROUND 11 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
SPEEDS IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DIURNAL UPVALLEY
FLOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA AND POTENTIALLY
DRY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR EASTERN
WA AND NORTH ID AS A VERY WEAK WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN BC. THE
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS (5-15%), BUT WITH A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE
INCREASING WILDFIRE RISK.
THE MAIN FIRE RISK WILL COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ASTORIA TO LETHBRIDGE INCREASE TO AROUND 13 MB AND
FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT. A DRY COLD FRONT AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY RAPID DRYING IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON, BRINGING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WILL BE THE
MOST VULNERABLE SPOT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE DIURNAL UPVALLEY
COMPONENT WILL ASSIST THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS
A 90% CHANCE FOR OMAK TO GUST GREATER THAN 30 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO,
THERE WILL STILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT SOUTHWEST
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT WEAKER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
NEW OR EXISTING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAPID SPREAD. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AND BREEZY AS WELL WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WITHOUT A LEE CYCLONE IN
ALBERTA, PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A COUPLE MB WEAKER AROUND 10 MB.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL RIDGING IMPINGES ON THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENSEMBLES
HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DISRUPTION IN THE MONSOON RIDGE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THE SPECIFICS
OF THIS TROUGH EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT WITH
PWATS AROUND 120-150% OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE MONSOONAL RIDGE, THIS
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
EVEN LOWER BEYOND MID NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES ARE NEARLY SPLIT IN
HALF WITH STRONG RIDGING RETURNING QUICKLY BRINGING HOT CONDITIONS
OR STAYING IN A COOLER, CLOUDIER REGIME. /DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PERSIST WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED SMOKE IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM REGIONAL FIRES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 88 59 84 54 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 60 87 61 83 58 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 53 85 54 80 51 88 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 95 63 89 61 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 87 56 84 50 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 86 59 81 55 89 / 20 0 0 0 10 0
KELLOGG 58 86 58 81 56 89 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 89 58 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 87 62 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 89 59 88 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...NONE.
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